欧洲电力设备行业研究报告2009年1月

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Very tough year in prospect
n The DJ Industrial Goods & Services index fell by 47.4% in 2008,
underperforming the DJ 600 by 1.4%.
n November saw a sharp shift in trend for the industry compared with the first
ten months of the year. At this stage, we do not see an improvement in 2009.
On the contrary, the worsening climate for the US non-residential segment, for
emerging economies such as China and Brazil, for process industries and for the
energy sector, could make matters worse this year.
n While the market seems to want to believe in a short-lived crisis, we do not
foresee an upturn in many end markets before 2011, this despite the massive
stimulus plans announced by various governments.
n Based on these factors, we remain generally cautious on the sector as we expect it
to continue to do worse than the market in 2009. We are maintaining our
Underperform rating.
n In 2009, short-cycle companies should weather the storm better than long
cycle ones, as their cash flow is more recurrent and steadier. Those that are able
to take advantage of restructuring plans but also of synergies in connection with
recent transactions, should emerge stronger from this crisis. Given this backdrop,
our long/short bets are: 1/ Schneider over ABB for short cycle/long cycle and
the risks hanging over process industries, 2/ Schneider over Legrand, on short
cycles, and 3/ we would favour Philips over Siemens, for conglomerates.

Contents
1. Business slump expected in 2009 3
November 2008: shifting down 3
2009: all segments set to decline further 4
US non-residential segment 5
Emerging markets 6
Segment trends 6
Energy and T&D 8
2. What visibility in the medium term? 11
Crisis set to be longer-than-expected… 11
…despite the historic stimulus plans 12
In the USA 12
In China 13
In Europe 13
3. Differentiating factors in 2009 16
Short cycles versus long cycles 16
Restructuring plans and synergies 17
4. Arbitrages and best picks for 2009 20
Sector valuations 20
Main risks in 2009 22
5. Individual stock ratings 23
ABB (Reduce, target price: SFr12): risk is growing in process industries 23
Alstom (Reduce, target price:

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