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雷达卡
【作者】：J.P.Morgan
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：69
【目录或简介】：
• Quant Models are mathematical methods built to efficiently screen and
identify stocks.
• They are based on information and data (analyst upgrades, valuation
metrics etc) proven to help predict stock returns.
• Having developed a rather successful Quant Model over the years, we
intend to introduce it to our readers and also use its methodology to
apply it to a fruitful field for statistics: Football and the World Cup.
• In this Model, we focus on market prices, FIFA Ranking, historical
results, our J.P. Morgan Team Strength Indicator etc to come up with a
mathematical model built to predict match results.
• Ultimately our Model indicates Brazil as being the strongest team
taking part in the tournament. However, due to the fixture schedule our
Model predicts the following final outcome:
- 3rd: Netherlands
- 2nd: Spain
- World Cup Winners: England
• Alternatively, we point out that the 3 favourite teams (from market
prices recorded on 30 April of 3.9-to-1 for Spain, 5-to-1 for Brazil and
5.4-to-1 for England) represent a 52.5% probability of winning the
World Cup.
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