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Price cuts: Who would win and who would lose out?................... 3
The key issue is no longer on whether and when there will be price cuts................................3
Heavier cash flows pressure if contracted sales remained slow ..............................................3
Our expected property price declines.......................................................................................6
Potential shifts in policy stance after property price declines happen ......................................6
Expected new government measures if developers refuse to lower prices.............................7
SOE developers provide faster growth at this stage ..................... 8
State-owned developers have grown bigger throughout the past cycles, whereas most
private developers have shrunk in size......................................................................................8
Strong state-owned developers have grown in market cap despite down-markets in 2008 and
2010.........................................................................................................................................8
We expect consolidations also inside the SOE arena .............................................................11
State-owned leaders also have advantages on financing over private property companies ...13
Virtuous Cycle vs. Vicious Cycle .................................................... 15
Virtuous cycle for financially strong developers; Vicious cycle for financially weak developers
...............................................................................................................................................15
High-beta names with strong financials likely take the lead....... 17
Adding beta to portfolio via Poly HK and Minmetals...............................................................17
Inventory period rising but still manageable vs. 2008 ................. 24
Affordability Analysis ...................................................................... 30
Housing affordability getting stretched in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Nanjing ............30
Government policy summary ......................................................... 37
Property sector policies ..........................................................................................................37
Housing accumulation fund rate .............................................................................................41
Change in required reserve ratio .............................................................................................41
Land supply and demand................................................................ 42
More land supply for public housing.......................................................................................42
Local residential markets................................................................ 45
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