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We recommend investors buy Michelin against
Goodyear, following our proprietary AlphawiseSM
surveys in Europe and the US. Our estimates for
Michelin are 20% above consensus, while for Goodyear
we are 15% below the street. Within North America,
Cooper is our preferred tire stock. In Europe, we
recommend Michelin and Pirelli over Continental (EW)
and Nokian (UW).
Two different surveys in two different markets. We
surveyed key managers of 75 European tire distributors
as we were skeptical about the extent to which list price
hikes announced by tire companies would translate into
actual transaction price increases. Simultaneously, we
surveyed 1,000 US car and light truck tire consumers to
get a sense of sensitivity to price, brand and quality of
tires. We would caution investors against reading across
conclusions between the surveys due to the differences
in regions, end-markets, target groups, demographics.
Why the survey of European distributors is positive
for Michelin. The survey data bolstered our confidence
in industry margins: Inventories are far from overstocked
levels, pent-up demand is just being released and price
increases are sticking above our expectations. Michelin
has a prime market positioning in Europe, and these
findings removed the concerns that had informed our
previous Underweight stance. Our new pricing
assumptions were the main driver of our 40-50% EPS
upgrade for Michelin.
Why the survey of US consumers is a negative read
for Goodyear. The tire survey reinforced many of our
concerns about conditions in the US tire industry, mainly
around price/mix and volume. While recovering
commercial tires could be a shot in the arm for the
industry, we note that some of the mix benefit could be
offset by a higher mix of OE sales, which could continue
for years. Survey results indicate potentially lower pent
up demand in the US and prompted a 2% downward
revision of our NA unit sales.
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