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line growth, and continued improvement in asset quality and net interest margin.
Looking ahead, we believe sector loan growth should stabilize at ~19% for 2H10
and decelerate in 2011, while NPLs and credit costs are both at low levels with
high upward risks. Thus, any positive earnings surprises should be mainly driven
by NIM. We analyzed various drivers of banks’ NIM, and concluded that the room
for sequential margin recovery is very limited.
Quantifying the key NIM drivers
H-share banks’ NIM recovered by ~31bp on average from 2Q09 to 2Q10. Based
on our analysis, the shift from discounted bills to non-bill loans was the biggest
contributor for small banks’ NIM recovery (15-25bp), while the higher LDR helped
NIM by ~10bp at BOC, CMB, and BoComm. Longer loan maturity, shorter deposit
maturity, better loan pricing, and recovery in treasury yield also boosted margins,
though to a lesser extent.
Expect margin to peak and stabilize
The margin drivers appeared to be running out of steam for 2H10. Discounted
bills as % of sector loans was flattish in the past 2mths (-0.2ppt), and may start to
rebound as credit demand weakens. LDR in 2H10 should be lower than in 1H10.
The maturity mismatch of sector loan-deposit rose to record high levels, and is
facing the risk to reverse. Large banks’ margin should be largely stable in 2H10,
while CNCB and MSB could suffer margin decline due to the time deposits they
gathered in end 2Q10. CMB’s NIM is the most volatile, which may continue to rise
in 3Q10, but is vulnerable to any decline in discounted bill yield.
merrill lynch_margin nd maturity for 2010_bank in china_20100915.pdf
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