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Riders on the storm
2008 looks like a washout for earnings growth in the sector
Selectively we still see some good value among these companies
We are buyers of Deutsche for value and medium-term growth,
TNT for value and track record, and Panalpina for profits recovery
What’s new?
Earnings guidance update
Weak near-term outlook: driven by the US
We have now had one quarter of earnings to get a
better view of earnings for the year. To recap
briefly, in our note The Storm before the calm, 2
April 2008, we predicted earnings growth this
year for the sector of c3.5% versus the 2002-07a
CAGR of c8.6%. The weakest year in this period
was 2003 when earnings growth increased by
3.6% y-o-y. We also stated in our April note that
the risk to our forecasts was still on the downside
going into the first quarter.
This proved correct. Six out of seven of these
companies have now reported (FedEx will report
its Q4 numbers on 18 June). UPS, as expected, cut
its full year 2008 guidance and, for prudence, we
have trimmed our forecasts for others including
FedEx and Panalpina.
For the group, we now forecast earnings growth
(at constant FX) of 0% this year. Unsurprisingly,
the reasons cited are higher fuel costs, declining
demand and trading down by customers to
cheaper services. Hence, 2008 is set to be the
lowest growth year in recent times and below the
low point year of 2003.
目录
Riders on the storm 3
What’s new? 3
Shares and market valuations 5
Company comments 6
Global trade update 10
Fuel and yield issues 11
Updates on the majors 13
Global express overview 13
Deutsche Post 13
FedEx 20
TNT 24
UPS 30
Updates on the forwarders 37
DSV 37
Kuehne & Nagel 41
Panalpina 45
Company financials 48
Disclosure appendix 56
Disclaimer 59
220822.pdf
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