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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球物流行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：60
【目录或简介】：
Following the late Q4 rally in global freight demand we lift
our macro forecasts a touch for 2010. But trend growth in
the next few years will still be lower than in the last upcycle
For stock picking, we remain focused on the winners and
losers in this lower growth environment, and on market
position, pricing power and fundamental value
We are OW(V) on DP-DHL and Panalpina and UW(V) on
Maersk and TNT. We upgrade DSV to OW(V) from N(V)
Freight volumes: During the late Q4 global stock-build, shipments increased on
average by 15% y-o-y. Hence, we are a bit more positive about 2010 and lift our
growth forecasts for seafreight and express parcels to 5% (from 4%) and air cargo to
6% (5%). But the real story remains medium term demand, which due to a slowing of
off-shoring and fragile end-demand is unlikely to return to the boom trends of 2003-
07. Pricing: Strong Q4 demand also lifted freight rates globally. We refresh our
bespoke supply-demand models for air and sea container freight; a sustained rate
recovery is unlikely due to capacity overhang. Forecasts: Filtering this analysis to our
companies, 2010 sector sales growth is forecast at a fairly sluggish 5.6%. But profits,
helped by full year impact of 2009 efficiencies, should lift by 26% y-o-y. However,
following this rebound, profit growth in the next few years looks less rosy. For 2011-
12, we calculate a CAGR of c10% - well down on c16% achieved in the last upcycle.
Valuations: We also report on movements in consensus forecasts and valuations; the
better news is that stocks have not over-run, the forward PE (2011e) is c16.0x –
similar to this point in the last up-cycle. Stocks: We remain neutral on the sector
overall and therefore more focused on stock picking. DP-DHL and UPS, both
OW(V), are well placed strategically. FedEx (N/V) is up with events. TNT (UW/V),
to us, still appears too narrowly focused to generate acceptable cross-cycle growth.
We remain UW(V) on Mærsk; container shipping is still a potent value-trap despite
some pick up in volumes and rates. On the forwarders, we upgrade DSV to OW(V)
from N(V) and maintain our OW(V) on Panalpina. Kuehne (N/V) is up with events.
DP-DHL is our key Overweight. TNT and Mærsk are key Underweights.
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