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【出版时间及名称】：2010年欧洲航空与军工行业展望
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：36
【目录或简介】：
We recently conducted a survey to gauge 2010
investor expectations for the Defence sector. This
note summarises our analysis and key takeaways from
the data, and provides the full survey results.
Sector outlook is positive with BAE Systems
expected to be the best performer of the EU names.
52% of respondents expect defence stocks to
outperform the S&P 500 by 5-15% this year. At the stock
level, 39% of respondents expect BAE to be the biggest
outperformer followed by Thales and Cobham whilst
Finmeccanica and EADS are expected to be the biggest
underperformers within defence.
Investors feel the sector is undervalued. 64% of
respondents believe defence is undervalued (by at least
10%) whilst only 6% believe it is overvalued. However,
threats to global security (rather than valuation) are seen
as the primary reason to buy defence.
Concerns over cuts to the US defence budget
dominate. Unsurprisingly, over two-thirds of
respondents view the trajectory of future spending as
the chief concern for defence stocks.
The majority of respondents expect the FY11
defence budget to be flat. Over two-thirds of
respondents expect the FY11 budget to be flat whilst a
similar percentage has the same view on weapons
spend. However, over half of respondents expect cyber
warfare spend to increase by at least 6% CAGR.
Cobham remains our top pick in defence followed
by BAE Systems. The results of the survey are mildly
positive for European defence contractors and certainly
reinforce our view that concerns over material near-term
cuts to the defence budget look overdone. Further, the
expectation of defence outperforming in 2010 highlights
the improving sentiment towards these stocks. The
identification of cyber warfare as a growth area adds
credence to our OW stance on Cobham whilst the recent
good performance of BAE could be set to continue.
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