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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚太航空行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：42
【目录或简介】：
A/P Shipping Monthly
Remain Positive on
Container Shipping LT; ST
Negative from falling AE rates
Container shipping: Remain positive on 12-month
outlook; more upside catalysts beyond rate hikes
from the Transpacific annual contracts. We believe
that strong volume recovery in 2010 and lower than
expected effective capacity growth (from higher levels of
deferrals, conversions to other ship types and extra slow
steaming) could be positives, maintaining freight rates at
profitable levels.
Near-term, Asia-Europe freight rates are likely to
weaken 20%... Freight rates on this route are currently
at very profitable levels and with new capacity to be
added over the next 2 months, we expect freight rates to
dip ~20%, prior to a recovery into the 3Q peak season.
Nevertheless, we expect rates to remain profitable.
…but Transpacific rates are likely to strengthen
~20% in the new annual contracts from May/June.
This will likely offset the expected weakness on
Asia-Europe freight rates. We expect strengthening US
consumer demand into 2H10 to provide ammunition for
peak season surcharges on the Asia-US routes into 3Q.
More positive on OOIL, EGM, WHL and NOL, stocks
with relatively higher exposure to Transpacific/Intra-Asia
routes, well positioned to restructure cost bases and
post a strong return to profitability.
Dry bulk shipping: Expect BDI to be weak near-term.
This is because we believe seasonally weaker China
iron ore shipments will keep Capesize rates low and the
end of the South America grain season from May will no
longer provide support for rates on smaller ship sizes.
Trim dry bulk shipping stocks (STX PO) into
strength; Buy on dips (PB). We expect BDI to be
volatile but range-bound at 2000-4000 over the next 12
months and expect dry bulk shipping stocks to similarly
trade range-bound.
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