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雷达卡
Investment summary 4
1. Unfavourable macroeconomic outlook 6
A sector benefiting from a structural growth trend... 6
...but under major pressure near term on volumes 7
2. Attractive valuations that nevertheless inspire little confidence on the market 9
Tour operating: valuations at historical lows 9
Hotels: low valuations, but not much regarded 11
3. Tour operating: resilience 18
Demand set to remain weak 18
Drop in capacity helps buoy margins 20
Synergies continue to be unlocked 21
Robust financial structures 22
Still a premium for upscale/niches activities? 24
4. Hotels: groups under pressure 27
Growth in supply that will be favourable to hotel groups rather than independent hotels 27
Poor trend in demand 31
Specific situations for each group 36
5. Consolidation: a lifeline for the sector? 41
Tour operators: unlikely to enjoy major M&A momentum 41
Major rethink afoot in the sector 42
6. Company profiles 48
Accor 49
Still plenty of opportunities 49
Club Méditerranée 53
Undervalued … 53
InterContinental 57
A prime target, with exposure to North America 57
Kuoni 61
Relatively discouraging trends 61
NH Hoteles 65
Under real financial pressure... 65
Sol Melia 69
Candidate for de-listing? 69
Thomas Cook Group 73
Resilient, but limited upside 73
TUI AG 77
Still too little visibility on the strategy 77
TUI Travel 81
Still attractive! 81
Whitbread 85
UK exposure does not appeal much 85
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