发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：84
【目录或简介】：
Global Data Watch
Economic Research
April 30, 2010
www.morganmarkets.com
• Economic recovery gaining power even as mounting fiscal stress raises
anxiety in developed world
• Multi-year package for Greece will relieve pressure but still leave on
table worries about solvency and contagion
• Asian growth continues to surprise on the upside, compelling another
forecast upgrade in Japan
• Brazil’s COPOM kicks off its tightening cycle with a 75bp hike; others
reluctant to follow
Bruce Kasman
(1-212) 834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
David Hensley
(1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Joseph Lupton
(1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Strong growth, slow and painful healing
Even as the global recovery gains breadth and momentum, European fiscal developments
are a reminder that the process of healing from the severe global
recession will be a slow and painful one. Initial soundings on 1Q GDP from
the US and Emerging Asia haave been strong, consistent with our view that
global GDP rose at a near 4% annualized pace in 1Q10. Given the impressive
advance in the higher-frequency indicators, the economy may do even better in
the current quarter. The available business surveys rose impressively in April
and stand far above their 1Q averages, a finding that should be confirmed by
our global PMI next week. Notably, the surprises are coming from across the
globe and include both manufacturing and services, and small as well as large
businesses. Consumer confidence also is up, reflecting the improving labor
market, as seen in this week’s reports from Japan, Germany, and Brazil. In the
same vein, US private payrolls are forecast to increase for the fourth straight
month by 85,000 in next week’s report. Against this backdrop, we have begun
raising forecasts after an extended period in which our global forecast was
stable, and are highlighting upside risk in other places where we have yet to
change numbers. This week we boosted our 2010 GDP forecast for Japan for
the second time in a month, from 2.4% to 3.2% (4Q/4Q).
Although economic activity is accelerating, the damage done to public finances is
creating market anxieties in parts of the developed world. These tensions are focused
inside the Euro area, where a handful of countries have developed very high
deficits and debt burdens, led by Greece. Although financial support for Greece is
on the way, the question of its ultimate solvency remains. Moreover, market pressures
recently have broadened to other Euro area economies with burdensome deficits,
including Portugal and Spain, threatening to broaden the crisis.
Contents
Economic Research note
US: keep an eye on the average
workweek 11
Cyclical lift arrives in the Euro
area—better late than never 13
Japan: BoJ to ease more even as
economy improves 15
UK: the election and beyond 17
Turkey: strong tourism performance
to persist 19
Thailand: tracking the impact of
politics on the economy 21
Global Economic Outlook Summary 4
Global Central Bank Watch 6
The J.P. Morgan View: Markets 7
Selected recent research from
J.P. Morgan Economics 10
Data Watches
United States 23
Euro area 31
Japan 37
Canada 43
Mexico 45
Brazil 47
Andeans 49
United Kingdom 51
Russia 55
Turkey 57
Australia and New Zealand 59
China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan 63
Korea 67
ASEAN 69
Regional Data Calendars 76