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Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, 4th Edition
Comment from the Stata technical groupThe fourth edition of Jeffrey Wooldridge’s textbook, Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, lives up to its subtitle. This text exemplifies a modern approach to econometrics in its choice of topics and its treatment of standard material. Wooldridge recognizes that modern econometrics involves much more than ordinary least squares (OLS) with a few extensions to handle the special cases commonly encountered in econometric data. In addition to chapters on OLS, he includes chapters on current techniques of estimation and inference for time-series data, panel data, limited dependent variables, and sample selection. In his treatments of standard OLS and two-stage least squares, Wooldridge breaks new ground by concentrating on advanced statistical concepts instead of matrix algebra. A traditional approach to introductory econometrics would use advanced materials sections to give courses on matrix algebra and its applications in econometrics. In contrast, Wooldridge uses the advanced sections of his text to introduce recently developed statistical concepts and techniques. This approach leads to a text with greater breadth than is usual in books of this type. This book is equally useful for advanced undergraduate study, as the basis of a survey course at the graduate level, or as a conceptual supplement to advanced courses. The fourth edition contains new material on the smearing estimator after log-linear OLS, expanded treatments of least-absolute-deviations estimators, linear models for heteroskedastic data, Chow tests for panel data, and panel-data methods for cluster samples. The result is that an excellent introductory book has been made even better. Table of contentsChapter 1 The Nature of Econometrics and Economic Data 1.1 What is Econometrics? 1.2 Steps in Empirical Economic Analysis 1.3 The Structure of Economic Data Cross-Sectional Data 1.4 Causality and the Notion of Ceteris Paribus in Econometric AnalysisTime Series Data Pooled Cross Sections Panel or Longitudinal Data A Comment on Data Structures Summary Key Terms Computer Exercises Part 1 Regression Analysis with Cross-Sectional Data Chapter 2 The Simple Regression Model 2.1 Definition of the Simple Regression Model 2.2 Deriving the Ordinary Least Squares Estimates A Note on Terminology 2.3 Properties of OLS on Any Sample of Data Fitted Values and Residuals 2.4 Units of Measurement and Functional Form Algebraic Properties of OLS Statistics Goodness-of-Fit The Effects of Changing Units of Measurement on OLS Statistics 2.5 Expected Values and Variances of the OLS Estimators Incorporating Nonlinearities in Simple Regression The Meaning of "Linear" Regression Unbiasedness of OLS 2.6 Regression Through the OriginVariances of the OLS Estimators Estimating the Error Variance Summary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Appendix 2A Chapter 3 Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation 3.1 Motivation for Multiple Regression The Model with Two Independent Variables 3.2 Mechanics and Interpretation of Ordinary Least Squares The Model with k Independent Variables Obtaining the OLS Estimates 3.3 The Expected Value of the OLS Estimators Interpreting the OLS Regression Equation On the Meaning of "Holding Other Factors Fixed" in Multiple Regression Changing More than One Independent Variable Simultaneously OLS Fitted Values and Residuals A "Partialling Out" Interpretation of Multiple Regression Comparison of Simple and Multiple Regression Estimates Goodness-of-Fit Regression Through the Origin Including Irrelevant Variable in a Regression Model 3.4 The Variance of the OLS Estimators Omitted Variable Bias: The Simple Case Omitted Variable Bias: More General Cases The Components of the OLS Variances: Multicollinearity 3.5 Efficiency of OLS: The Gauss-Markov TheoremVariances in Misspecified Models Estimating σ2: Standard Errors of the OLS Estimators Summary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Appendix 3A Chapter 4 Multiple Regression Analysis: Inference 4.1 Sampling Distributions of the OLS Estimators 4.2 Testing Hypotheses About a Single Population Parameter: The t Test Testing Against One-Sided Alternatives 4.3 Confidence IntervalsTwo-Sided Alternatives Testing Other Hypotheses About βj Computing p-values for t tests A Reminder on the Language of Classical Hypothesis Testing Economic, or Practical, versus Statistical Significance 4.4 Testing Hypotheses About a Single Linear Combination of the Parameters 4.5 Testing Multiple Linear Restrictions: The F Test Testing Exclusion Restrictions 4.6 Reporting Regression ResultsRelationship Between F and t Statistics The R-Squared Form of the F Statistic Computing p-values for F Tests The F Statistic for Overall Significance of a Regression Testing General Linear Restrictions Summary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Chapter 5 Multiple Regression Analysis: OLS Asymptotics 5.1 Consistency Deriving the Inconsistency in OLS 5.2 Asymptotic Normality and Large Sample Inference Other Large Sample Tests: The Lagrange Multiplier Statistic 5.3 Asymptotic Efficiency of OLSSummary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Appendix 5A Chapter 6 Multiple Regression Analysis: Further Issues 6.1 Effects of Data Scaling on OLS Statistics Beta Coefficients 6.2 More on Functional Form More on Using Logarithmic Functional Forms 6.3 More on Goodness-of-Fit and Selection of Regressors Models with Quadratics Models with Interaction Terms Adjusted R-Squared 6.4 Prediction and Residual Analysis Using Adjusted R-Squared to Choose Between Nonnested Models Controlling for Too Many Factors in Regression Analysis Adding Regressors to Reduce the Error Variance Confidence Intervals for Predictions SummaryResidual Analysis Predicting y When log(y) Is the Dependent Variable Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Appendix 6A Chapter 7 Multiple Regression Analysis with Qualitative Information: Binary (or Dummy) Variables 7.1 Describing Qualitative Information 7.2 A Single Dummy Independent Variable Interpreting Coefficients on Dummy Explanatory Variables 7.3 Using Dummy Variables for Multiple Categories When the Dependent Variable is log(y) Incorporating Ordinal Information by Using Dummy Variables 7.4 Interactions Involving Dummy Variables Interactions Among Dummy Variables 7.5 A Binary Dependent Variable: The Linear Probability ModelAllowing for Different Slopes Testing for Differences in Regression Functions Across Groups 7.6 More on Policy Analysis And Program Evaluation Summary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Chapter 8 Heteroskedasticity 8.1 Consequences of Heteroskedasticity for OLS 8.2 Heteroskedasticity-Robust Inference After OLS Estimation Computing Heteroskedasticity-Robust LM Tests 8.3 Testing for Heteroskedasticity The White Test for Heteroskedasticity 8.4 Weighted Least Squares Estimation The Heteroskedasticity Is Known up to a Multiplicative Constant 8.5 The Linear Probability Model RevisitedThe Heteroskedasticity Function Must Be Estimated: Feasible GLS What If the Assumed Heteroskedasticity Function is Wrong? Prediction and Prediction Intervals with Heteroskedasticity Summary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Chapter 9 More on Specification and Data Problems 9.1 Functional Form Misspecification RESET as a General Test for Functional Form Misspecification 9.2 Using Proxy Variables for Unobserved Explanatory Variables Tests Against Nonnested Alternatives Using Lagged Dependent Variables as Proxy Variables 9.3 Models with Randm SlopesA Different Slant on Multiple Regression 9.4 Properties of OLS Under Measurement Error Measurement Error in the Dependent Variable 9.5 Missing Data, Nonrandom Samples, and Outlying ObservationsMeasurement Error in an Explanatory Variable 9.6 Least Absolute Deviations Estimation Missing Data SummaryNonrandom Samples Outlying and Influential Observations Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Part 2 Regression Analysis with Time Series Data Chapter 10 Basic Regression Analysis with Time Series Data 10.1 The Nature of Time Series Data 10.2 Examples of Time Series Regression Models Static Models 10.3 Finite Sample Properties of OLS Under Classical Assumptions Finite Distributed Lag Models A Convention About the Time Index Unbiasedness of OLS 10.4 Functional Form, Dummy Variables, and Index NumbersThe Variances of the OLS Estimators and the Gauss-Markov Theorem Inference Under the Classical Linear Model Assumptions 10.5 Trends and Seasonality Characterizing Trending Time Series SummaryUsing Trending Variables in Regression Analysis A Detrending Interpretation of Regressions with a Time Trend Computing R-squared When the Dependent Variable Is Trending Seasonality Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Chapter 11 Further Issues in Using OLS with Time Series Data 11.1 Stationary and Weakly Dependent Time Series Stationary and Nonstationary Time Series 11.2 Asymptotic Properties of OLSWeakly Dependent Time Series 11.3 Using Highly Persistent Time Series in Regression Analysis Highly Persistent Time Series 11.4 Dynamically Complete Models and the Absence of Serial CorrelationTransformations on Highly Persistent Time Series Deciding Whether a Time Series is I(1) 11.5 The Homoskedasticity Assumption for Time Series Models Summary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Chapter 12 Serial Correlation and Heteroskedasticity in Time Series Regressions 12.1 Properties of OLS with Serially Correlated Errors Unbiasedness and Consistency 12.2 Testing for Serial Correlation Efficiency and Inference Goodness-of-Fit Serial Correlation in the Presence of Lagged Dependent Variables A t test for AR(1) Serial Correlation with Strictly Exogenous Regressors 12.3 Correcting for Serial Correlation with Strictly Exogenous Regressors The Durbin–Watson Test under Classical Assumptions Testing for AR(1) Serial Correlation without Strictly Exogenous Regressors Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation Obtaining the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator in the AR(1) Model 12.4 Differencing and Serial CorrelationFeasible GLS Estimation with AR(1) Errors Comparing OLS and FGLS Correcting for Higher Order Serial Correlation 12.5 Serial Correlation-Robust Inference After OLS 12.6 Heteroskedasticity in Time Series Regressions Heteroskedasticity-Robust Statistics SummaryTesting for Heteroskedasticity Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation in Regression Models Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Part 3 Advanced Topics Chapter 13 Pooling Cross Sections Across Time: Simple Panel Data Methods 13.1 Pooling Independent Cross Sections Across Time The Chow Test for Structural Change Across Time 13.2 Policy Analysis with Pooled Cross Sections13.3 Two-Period Panel Data Analysis Organizing Panel Data 13.4 Policy Analysis with Two-Period Panel Data13.5 Differencing with More than Two Time Periods Potential Pitfalls in First-Differencing Panel Data SummaryKey Terms Problems Computer Exercises Appendix 13A Chapter 14 Advanced Panel Data Methods 14.1 Fixed Effects Estimation The Dummy Variable Regression 14.2 Random Effects Models Fixed Effects or First Differencing? Fixed Effects with Unbalanced Panels Random Effects or Fixed Effects? 14.3 Applying Panel Data Methods to Other Data StructuresSummary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Appendix 14A Chapter 15 Instrumental Variables Estimation and Two Stage Least Squares 15.1 Motivation: Omitted Variables in a Simple Regression Model Statistical Inference with the IV Estimator 15.2 IV Estimation of the Multiple Regression ModelProperties of IV with a Poor Instrumental Variable Computing R-Squared After IV Estimation 15.3 Two Stage Least Squares A Single Endogenous Explanatory Variable 15.4 IV Solutions to Errors-in-Variables ProblemsMulticollinearity and 2SLS Multiple Endogenous Explanatory Variables Testing Multiple Hypotheses After 2SLS Estimation 15.5 Testing for Endogeneity and Testing Overidentifying Restrictions Testing for Endogeneity 15.6 2SLS with HeteroskedasticityTesting Overidentification Restrictions 15.7 Applying 2SLS to Time Series Equations 15.8 Applying 2SLS to Pooled Cross Sections and Panel Data Summary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Appendix 15A Chapter 16 Simultaneous Equations Models 16.1 The Nature of Simultaneous Equations Models 16.2 Simultaneity Bias in OLS 16.3 Identifying and Estimating a Structural Equation Identification in a Two-Equation System 16.4 Systems with More than Two Equations Estimation by 2SLS Identification in Systems with Three or More Equations 16.5 Simultaneous Equations Models with Time SeriesEstimation 16.6 Simultaneous Equations Models with Panel Data Summary Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Chapter 17 Limited Dependent Variable Models and Sample Selection Corrections 17.1 Logit and Probit Models for Binary Response Specifying Logit and Probit Models 17.2 The Tobit Model for Corner Solution Responses Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Logit and Probit Models Testing Multiple Hypotheses Interpreting the Logit and Probit Estimates Interpreting the Tobit Estimates 17.3 The Poisson Regression ModelSpecification Issues in Tobit Models 17.4 Censored and Truncated Regression Models Censored Regression Models 17.5 Sample Selection Corrections Truncated Regression Models When is OLS on the Selected Sample Consistent? SummaryIncidental Truncation Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Appendix 17A Appendix 17B Chapter 18 Advanced Time Series Topics 18.1 Infinite Distributed Lag Models The Geometric (or Koyck) Distributed Lag 18.2 Testing for Unit RootsRational Distributed Lag Models 18.3 Spurious Regression 18.4 Cointegration and Error Correction Models Cointegration 18.5 Forecasting Error Correction Models Types of Regression Models Used for Forecasting SummaryOne-Step-Ahead Forecasting Comparing One-Step-Ahead Forecasts Multiple-Step-Ahead Forecasts Forecasting Trending, Seasonal, and Integrated Processes Key Terms Problems Computer Exercises Chapter 19 Carrying Out an Empirical Project 19.1 Posing a Question 19.2 Literature Review 19.3 Data Collection Deciding on the Appropriate Data Set 19.4 Econometric AnalysisEntering and Storing Your Data Inspecting, Cleaning, and Summarizing Your Data 19.5 Writing an Empirical Paper Introduction SummaryConceptual (or Theoretical) Framework Econometric Models and Estimation Methods The Data Results Conclusions Style Hints Key Terms Sample Empirical Projects List of Journals Data Sources Appendices Appendix A Basic Mathematical Tools A.1 The Summation Operator and Descriptive Statistics A.2 Properties of Linear Functions A.3 Proportions and Percentages A.4 Some Special Functions and Their Properties Quadratic Functions A.5 Differential CalculusThe Natural Logarithm The Exponential Function Summary Key Terms Problems Appendix B Fundamentals of Probability B.1 Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions Discrete Random Variables B.2 Joint Distributions, Conditional Distributions, and Independence Continuous Random Variables Joint Distributions and Independence B.3 Features of Probability Distributions Conditional Distributions A Measure of Central Tendency: The Expected Value B.4 Features of Joint and Conditional Distributions Properties of Expected Value Another Measure of Central Tendency: The Median Measures of Variability: Variance and Standard Deviation Variance Standard Deviation Standardizing a Random Variable Measures of Association: Covariance and Correlation B.5 The Normal and Related Distributions Covariance Correlation Coefficient Variance of Sums of Random Variables Conditional Expectation Properties of Conditional Expectation Conditional Variance The Normal Distribution SummaryThe Standard Normal Distribution Additional Properties of the Normal Distribution The Chi-Square Distribution The t Distribution The F Distribution Key Terms Problems Appendix C Fundamentals of Mathematical Statistics C.1 Populations, Parameters, and Random Sampling Sampling C.2 Finite Sample Properties of Estimators Estimators and Estimates C.3 Asymptotic or Large Sample Properties of Estimators Unbiasedness The Sampling Variance of Estimators Efficiency Consistency C.4 General Approaches to Parameter Estimation Asymptotic Normality Method of Moments C.5 Interval Estimation and Confidence Intervals Maximum Likelihood Least Squares The Nature of Interval Estimation C.6 Hypothesis Testing Confidence Intervals for the Mean from a Normally Distributed Population A Simple Rule of Thumb for a 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Confidence Intervals for Nonnormal Populations Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing C.7 Remarks on NotationTesting Hypotheses About the Mean in a Normal Population Asymptotic Tests for Nonnormal Populations Computing and Using p-Values The Relationship Between Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing Practical Versus Statistical Significance Summary Key Terms Problems Appendix D Summary of Matrix Algebra D.1 Basic Definitions D.2 Matrix Operations Matrix Addition D.3 Linear Independence. Rank of a MatrixScalar Multiplication Matrix Multiplication Transpose Partitioned Matrix Multiplication Trace Inverse D.4 Quadratic Forms and Positive Definite Matrices D.5 Idempotent Matrices D.6 Differentiation of Linear and Quadratic Forms D.7 Moments and Distributions of Random Vectors Expected Value SummaryVariance-Covariance Matrix Multivariate Normal Distribution Chi-Square Distribution t Distribution F Distribution Key Terms Problems Appendix E The Linear Regression Model in Matrix Form E.1 The Model and Ordinary Least Squares Estimation E.2 Finite Sample Properties of OLS E.3 Statistical Inference E.4 Some Asymptotic Analysis Summary Key Terms Problems Appendix F Answers to Chapter Questions Appendix G Statistical Tables References Glossary Index |