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Joking start
At Beijing time 11/9 mid-day,Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump meltdown his rival Democratic Hilary Clinton's road to White House and vowed winning presidential campaign after taking over 270 votes in the Election Day of USA. The big surprise for America and around world, it seems like fate happened to USA because turnaround 11/9 that's 9/11, is that joke? More campy story emerging as the former attorney general at Bill Clinton's tenure passed away at early in the morning of 11/7 which is just one day ahead of Election Day because she ever swore that Trump would never be president in her lifetime, dreams come true.
Prediction result
So let's recheck the accuracy of prediction conducted by high-tier think tank which oversaw 85-90% possibility that Hilary Clinton would win the 2016 campaign. Mainstream media described the biggest black-swan emerged again following the British's referendum to leave EU in June. Is that true? The reason so-called black-swan is that they set assumption based on calculating model created on parameter from tiny sample lot which put Trump's win in low-odds issue.As we know, poll implemented by CNN or Reuters was extremely tiny 10,000-15,000 sample lot compared with legal voter counts across all the America. It's absolutely fake hypothesis to create link between 10,000 sample lots and 0.1 billion scale. Given extreme example, if you conduct paper poll to 10,000 citizens living in the Houston city that Rocket would win game against Lakers tonight? I'm pretty sure over 80%-90% possibility that positive prediction would come out. The answer is simple, Houston people love Rocket. What if poll processed in Salt laker city? The result must be another scene.
I'm not doubt the professional background to conduct prediction based on the big data. To be honest they are quite good at dealing in model creating on the separation group,calculating based on weighted data, they could offer very specific report demonstrating what support rate of black,white, male, female, young, mid age, old on Trump or Hilary. But the point is that the data which collecting by the organization is not big enough or too small to reflect the truth. Final turnout in different category is totally different from poll ahead of election.
Gold story
So-called black-swan fly from horizon line, Sitting president of United States claimed that the sun is still rising. It's not big deal. At election moment, Dow lost 600 points,the safe-heaven gold, Japanese yen skyrocket by 3% against US dollar at 3 hours. Another 3 hours after dust settled down, what happened? Dow retain the loss, gold and yen experienced diving from the 3 meters jump platform which they climbing hard over Trump's winning, and almost standing at 1280 $/ounce the same level compared with previous session. Let's citing another prediction figured out by financial institution that the gold would soar to 1375/1400 $/ounce if final victory hitting Trump. What happened again? Prediction always lie! Actually the predicted trend is on right direction, that's common sense that Trump transiting uncertainty to the market whereas gold fit for investors' anti-risk appetite. The gold surging does not last long time, only couple of hours after diving in the water, riddle gradually faded over time moving. If only focus the 9AM (GMT+8) comparison between Today and yesterday, nothing special happened although the most powerful election hammered on the most powerful Country in the world. I'm still curious that how could they get 1400 $/ounce which does excite some gambler betting on Trump after getting sweet bar betting on Bretix but result is not so bright because recovery processes very soon. Trump win, safe-heaven up is inevitable, but how much and how long is very hard to say based on model. Maybe we could take Bretix as reference, but is only for reference, too much differences in two Countries separately at impact on the world, Economy amount and so on.
Uncertainty impact
Echoing mainstream's voice, Trump would bring uncertainty to the world along his presidency. What's uncertainty? Let's tackle Trump's campaign comments which does illustrate some vague standpoint at economy policy, foreign affairs, attitude to China, TPP. I believe there is strong team acting as advisor involving senior governor and officials ever playing very big role in the former administration who know well what kind of slogan do best to their client Trump for winning. And I more believe most comments only work for campaign to draw attention from the voters. Actually not 100% campaign promise would go to executive phase for example Black Obama who has done very good job relative to his campaign promise, finally only 70% come true. American people get used to this election environment, campaign step, everyday promise over 100 times; running the office step, realize promise but at discount; transferring power step, drink coffee and waiting for next person. Digging down what's standpoint of Trump, nothing could be tell specifically except his make America great again. Voters will take that excited comments seriously? I don't think so. 4-years tenure will pass very soon. Last night Trump team celebrating for triumph, at blink Mr. President would organize his politics legacy 4 years later. I believe some people ever read book Too big to fail which elaborating big bank system. USA bigger and more complicated machine than bank system, every 4 year it will recruit one operator to run it. At the same time, there is maintenance team always eye on the operator and machine to control both them in the normal frame. Uncertainty's impact on the market disappearing soon in the face of big machine proved Too big to fail. The campaign team would dismiss when sending Trump to White House after running 17 months, the same thing, The different tenure would sit in the same White House.
Volatility means trade opportunity
In practice, I will limit gold trade operation on the Election Day frame. Before that day, you know nothing about result, after that day, nothing would happen. The vote counting come out state by state, when Trump lead over Hilary the gold start to climb, at that moment he has 30 votes edge over Hilary, the momentum is enough because lead 30 votes mean that Hilary need win 2 middle size state to narrow gap, we could build position. Then at the moment Trump lead over Hilary 254:215, the market believe that Trump will win. This is most appetite swallowing by market.Fast out at 1335$/ounce, you did make good use of this volatility.
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