第10天
1.主题
An In-Depth Look at Deleveraging系列(一)
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIzODg2NDQyMA==&mid=2247484179&idx=1&sn=32b58e999829f39cdea681a76970c22e&chksm=e9339258de441b4e3cbe4de3c133a4e1ff4f9d30a65a9fa8c71bd2e011ae1be35afadda2a158&scene=21#wechat_redirect
2.摘要
The deleveraging process reduces debt/income ratios. When debt burdens become too large, deleveragings must happen.==>债务/收入 比率,即 债务/GDP,这是对整体经济而言;
The differences between how deleveragings are resolved depend on the amounts and paces of :
1) debt reduction,
2) austerity,
3) transferring wealth from the haves to the have-nots and
4) debt monetization.
此为去杠杆的四个流程即渐进式武器;下面是其利弊得失:
Each one of these four paths reduces debt/income ratios, but they have different effects on inflation and growth. Debt reduction (i.e., defaults and restructurings) and austerity are both deflationary and depressing while debt monetization is inflationary and stimulative.
Because there have been many deleveragings throughout history to learn from, and because the economic machine is a relatively simple thing, a lot of pain can be avoided if they understand how this process works and how it has played out in past times.==>一点点理论框架+一大堆历史案例,就是做学问的登天捷径!!
One man's debts are another man's assets, so the wealth effect of cutting the value of these assets aggressively can be devastating on the demands for goods, services and investment assets.
The problem is that one man's spending is another man's income, so when spending is cut, incomes are also cut, so it takes an awful lot of painful spending cuts to make significant reductions to debt/income ratios.==>仿佛看到T型账户的左右对称之美!!
The best way of negating the deflationary depression is for the central bank to provide adequate liquidity and credit support and, depending on different key entities’ need for capital, for the central government to provide that too.==>印钞注水是治疗通缩的首选良药~
Transfers of wealth from the have to the have-nots rarely occur in amounts that contribute meaningfully to the deleveraging (unless there are "revolutions”).==>财富转移并没有想象中的那么威力巨大,因为转移量不足以引起质变,而财富转移的质变就是社会革命,即社会阶级的角色互换与财富互转。
3.心得感悟
学术界做研究的时候,其实是更看重因果性的,业界的话,只要能看出变化的趋势,怎么变得其实不重要。
去杠杆通常被理解为”经济下行“,”L型转折“这样的经济过程是每一个国家,经济体都要面对的,差别仅仅在于应对的好或是应对的差。
去杠杆过程,往往是上一代的前辈们已经享受了高速的经济增长,直到最后经济引擎逐渐停滞。
桥水此文言简意赅,其实不必在意其学术的严谨性,只需抓取其可食用部分,记住以用为主!从股票分析的角度来看,价值非凡!!当然需要搭配一些辅料,O(∩_∩)O哈哈~
4.时间统计
昨日阅读5小时,累计295小时
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