财政紧缩导致复苏缓慢：对财政紧缩影响的新见解

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财政紧缩导致复苏缓慢：对财政紧缩影响的新见解

Slow recoveries through fiscal austerity: New insightsin the effects of fiscal austerity

作者：

弗朗切斯科比安奇

圣地亚哥Comin

功·霍华德

亲切的Thilo

亚历山大·马图什

Several European countries such as Spain, Portugal, and Greece implemented austerity programsto cope with the government-debt crisis in the aftermath of the Great Recession: They increasedtaxes on consumption, labour, and capital and reduced government expenditures to prevent alarge increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Such policies impose a greater tax burden on the economy which distorts labour supply and investment. We argue that these additional tax distortionsmake it less attractive for firms to invest in adopting new technologies. New insights from theFRAME project show that fiscal austerity has severe negative consequences for productivity andeconomic growth in the medium-run and can lead to slow recoveries. Further, austerity may exacerbate existing market failures associated with investment in research and development (R&D)and technology adoption. Beyond its well-known impact on aggregate demand fiscal austerityhas a negative effect on future economic growth and productivity growth and hence also on thesupply side. Fiscal consolidation is desirable only if it enables a quick reduction of the cost of financing debt but this is unlikely.
欧洲，西班牙，葡萄牙和希腊等几个欧洲国家实施了紧缩计划，以应对大萧条后的ZF债务危机：它们增加了消费税，劳动力税和资本税，并减少了ZF支出，以防止经济大幅度增长。债务与GDP的比率。这些政策给经济带来了更大的税收负担，扭曲了劳动力供应和投资。我们认为，这些额外的税收扭曲使公司投资采用新技术的吸引力降低。FRAME项目的新见解表明，财政紧缩对中期生产率和经济增长产生严重的负面影响，并可能导致复苏缓慢。此外，紧缩政策可能会加剧与研发投资相关的现有市场失灵（R＆D）和技术采用。除了对总需求的众所周知的影响外，财政紧缩还对未来的经济增长和生产率增长产生负面影响，因此也对供应方产生负面影响。财政合并只有在能够快速降低债务融资成本的情况下才是可取的，但这是不可能的。

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