UBS：China A-Share Strategy-Are Lower-Tier Cities China's Next Growth Engine？ [推广有奖]

瑞银最新中国A股策略，关注了环北京（包括河北）和中国中部的较低层次城市的情况，其认为虽然全国房地产销售均在减缓，但是低层次城市的销售尚可。这些城市的消费升级状况也比较令人有信心，而且还受益于核心城市圈（如京津冀）的外溢效应，英文15页：

Takeaways from field trip to Beijing-Hebei and Central China
We recently organized a fact-finding trip to the Beijing-Hebei region (Beijing, Langfang, Xiongan, Gu'an) and Central China (Hefei-Wuhu). Through meetings with local government officials, property developers, as well as site visits to local property projects, automakers, home appliance manufacturers and retailers, we sought to answer one question: are tier 3 and 4 cities China's next growth engine?

Property activity slowing nationwide but lower-tier cities holding up
Sentiment remains strong in lower-tier city property markets, supported by rollout of purchase restrictions in core cities. Coupled with loose credit conditions and property destocking, this is underpinning property sales, starts and investment in lower-tier markets. Still, we expect a slowdown in nationwide property sales, starts and investment, given introduction of cooling measures in more cities and rising mortgage rates. We maintain our forecasts for 2017 growth in property sales and property investment at 6-8% and 7-9%, respectively.

Consumption upgrades underway in lower-tier cities
Strong property sales in lower cities are also driving demand for autos and home appliances, which is being compounded by other factors, such as the wealth effect from rising home prices, shifting consumer habits (buying on credit, etc.), younger consumers and growing family-related expenditures. As a result, lower-tier cities are seeing clear consumption upgrades in areas such as appliances, department stores, autos and entertainment.



Rise of the city cluster: Tier 3/4 cities to enjoy spillover benefits from core cities
Tier 3/4 cities could see their fortunes diverge due to spillover benefits from nearby metropolises. These regions are becoming more attractive places to live and work due to better transportation links with core cities (high-speed rail, suburban rail) and enhanced public services. Satellite cities experienced rapid home price growth last year due to their proximity to core cities, but in the future, industrial structure upgrades and rising attractiveness to residents are likely to alleviate the issues of high housing and land prices in core cities. In particular, the Beijing-Hebei-Tianjin region is set to rapidly catch up with the Yangtze River Delta in terms of development, with construction in Xiongan as the catalyst.


20170630-UBS-China A-Share Strategy：Are Lower-Tier Cities China's Next Gro.pdf (319.47 KB)

2017-7-4 12:49:13 上传