报告名称：Great Wall Motor(02333.HK)Adjusting target prices after recording of stock divid
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2015-09-30
研究机构：德意志银行股份有限公司
股票名称：长城汽车
股票代码：02333,601633
页数：1
简介：Maintaining Hold for H shares and Sell for A shares on SUV competitions
On 28 August, Great Wall Motor announced that they planned to pay a 200%stock dividends to shareholders. After subsequent approval at the generalmeeting, Great Wall’s shares go ex-div today and hence hereby we adjust theH share target price (to HKD7.9) and A share price (to RMB6.6) accordingly.
Our investment thesis for the company is unchanged. We think that GWM willinevitably have cost structure increase on new product development andselling SUVs in a more competitive environment. Our target prices for both Aand H shares are set at 6.5x average FY15/16E P/E, about 16% above thecompany's historical H share trading average. We believe our target multiple isjustified, given a FY14-17E three-year EPS CAGR of 9%. The implied averageFY15/16E P/BV of 1.4x also seems reasonable considering sustainable ROE ofabout 20-21%.
As we foresee risk to its SUV sales on competition, we maintain Hold on GWMH shares. We also maintain GWM’s A share rating at Sell given its wideningvaluation premium to H share with limited justification, in our view. Keyupside/downside risks: stronger-/weaker-than-expected sales and competition.

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