报告名称：Lenovo Group(00992.HK)Fiercer PC competition downgrade to HOLD & cut TP to H
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2015-10-16
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：联想集团
股票代码：00992
页数：12
简介：Action
News that Xiaomi is currently working on a Linux-based laptop1, and that a key Lenovo PC VP is joining Xiaomi2, bodes ill for China’s top PC maker. We downgrade our rating for Lenovo from BUY to HOLD and cut our TP by 34% to HK$8.6.
Reasoning
Xiaomi has a track record of disrupting the consumer market. Xiaomi’s strategy is not to make money from hardware sales, but from its ecosystem. Xiaomi became China’s No.1 smartphone maker in just three years and the world’s No.2 wearable seller – just behind Fitbit – in only a year.
Xiaomi’s entry to the PC market is a serious threat to Lenovo. If Xiaomi launches a PC product, its primary market will be in China – where Lenovo earns the majority of its pre-tax profit. We are concerned this will force Lenovo to squeeze its PC margins in order to protect its China market.
Why PC now? Soft growth in the China smartphone market means Xiaomi has to find other drivers. The China PC market competition is far less fierce than smartphone. Suppliers are willing to have new entrants and the capacity is not a problem
Earnings forecast and valuation
As per our sensitivity analysis, we see that a 10%/20% cut in China PC ASP will cause Lenovo’s PTI to fall 26.4%/52.8% and a 10%/20% drop in Lenovo’s China PC shipments will lead the group’s PTI to fall 13.2%/26.4%.
We cut our FY15/16e & FY16/17e revenue forecasts by 3% & 6% from US$47.7bn & US$50.2bn to US$46.2bn & US$47bn, and adjusted net income by 9% & 15% to US$112mn & US$1.2bn. Downgrade to HOLD, and cut TP 34% to HK$8.6, based on 10x FY16/17e EPS.
Risks
Weaker market demand; fierce price competition.
下载地址：Lenovo Group(00992.HK)Fiercer PC competition downgrade to HOLD & cut TP to H
