报告名称：Daqin Railway Co. Ltd.(601006)Asset Injection Viewed as Negative
报告类型：点评报告
报告日期：2015-11-25
研究机构：摩根士丹利
股票名称：大秦铁路
股票代码：601006
页数：8
简介：Implications: 1) As the target asset is a greenfield project without earnings disclosure, it implies high uncertainties on profitability. We estimate cash earnings at Rmb331mn, implying a low cash yield at 3.7%.
2) We estimate the Rmb9bn investment cost for Taixing Railway implies a high unit cost of Rmb55m/km, above Rmb43m/km cost implied in DQR’s EV based on its current market cap.
3) Given weak demand outlook with 13.1% decline YTD in China’s rail coal throughput, we think the appraisal value based on historical cost is too high.
4) Given DQR’s track record with more reasonable asset injection made in 2010, this new transaction is a negative surprise, in our view. We remain cautious on any future asset injections at high appraisal prices.
5) Assuming a value destruction of Rmb3.1bn led by this investment, we estimate a fair value loss of Rmb0.2/share, which would be reflected by recent share price weakness (-3% or –Rmb0.3/share) in the past week.

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