报告名称：Sands China(01928.HK)2016 Could Potentially be a Tough Year "Reduce"
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2015-12-15
研究机构：国泰君安国际
股票名称：金沙中国有限公司
股票代码：01928
页数：13
简介：The Company's 3Q15 adjusted EBITDA decreased 32.7% YoY to US$545million, which was 3.3% below Bloomberg consensus. Net revenue wasUS$1.7 billion, down 28.8% YoY and down 6.7% QoQ. Company-wide VIPmarket share was 14.8% (down 2.6 ppt YoY and down 1.4 ppt QoQ) andmass market share was 33.6% (up 2.7 ppt YoY but down 1.4 ppt QoQ). Totalgaming revenue market share was 23.6%, up 0.3 ppt YoY but down 1.0 pptQoQ. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined by 1.9 ppt YoY (but was up 1.1 pptQoQ) to 33.0%.
Parisian Macao opening delayed from mid 2016 to 4Q16 at earliest;revise down 2015-2017 adjusted property EBITDA forecasts by 7.2%,13.9% and 11.9%, respectively. With competing properties Louis XIII, therenovated Casino Jai Alai and Wynn Palace expected to open in mid-2016,Parisian Macao will be opening in a highly competitive environment. Also, theMacau government expects 2016 gaming revenue of just MOP200 billion,equivalent to a 13.2% decrease from 2015F (based on our 2015 forecast),worse than we previously expected.
Lower target price from HK$31.70 to HK$23.00, and lower investmentrating from "Neutral" to "Reduce". Our 2015 and 2016 Sands Chinaadjusted EBITDA forecasts are 4.5% and 15.5% below consensus,respectively, due to our lower revenue expectations.
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