报告名称：China Hongqiao(01378.HK)Aluminum Prices Are Expected to Remain Low Downgrade to
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2015-12-18
研究机构：国泰君安国际
研究员：郭勇
股票名称：CHINAHONGQIAO
股票代码：01378
页数：6
简介：The decline in metals prices extended as investors worried that thecommodity rout may deepen. The plunge of aluminum prices extended inthe second half of 2015 as the export of aluminum products from Chinaincreased and made supply gluts elsewhere worse.
Maintain 2015 primary aluminum output assumptions unchanged, butrevise down 2016 output assumptions slightly due to production cut.China Hongqiao announced a production cut of 0.25 million tons in themeeting organized by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association inDecember.
Revise down aluminum price assumptions due to gloomy globaleconomic growth prospect and the deepening supply glut. We expect theglobal aluminum market to remain in surplus due to ample supply in thelong-term. We expect aluminum prices to be range-bound between1,500-1,750 USD/t in 2016 as the global economic growth prospect hasbecome gloomier.
Revise down TP to HK$ 4.24, and downgrade to “Neutral”.

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