报告名称：ANTA Sports Products(02020.HK)Leader of the pack
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2015-12-24
研究机构：招商证券
股票名称：安踏体育
股票代码：02020
页数：13
简介：As industry leader, we expect Anta to continue to benefit from the improvement of China's sportswear sector in FY16E
Fila/Anta Kids/e-commerce as strong growth drivers
Assume coverage with BUY, TP HK$24.44 on sector upcycle and near-term catalysts, albeit relatively rich valuation
The best mainland sportswear brand
With 10% of China's sportswear 2014 market share, only behind Nike and Adidas coupled with superior margins as well as healthy cashflow and balance sheet, we believe Anta is the best mainland sportswear company.
Continue to benefitfrom sportswear sector growth
Our forecasts remain conservative as we expect the group's FY15E-17E revenue to grow by 24%/12/10% YoY respectively driven by multiple platforms/brands (Fila, Anta Kids and e-commerce). Meanwhile, we also expect possible upside in net margins driven by GPM increase (improvement in brand mix) as well as operation leverage. In all, we conservatively expect FY15-17E earnings growth of 23%/13%/10% YoY respectively. Our current FY15E-17E EPS are +4%/0%/-3% vs consensus estimates.
Premium valuation justified, catalysts along the horizon
Despite Anta's rich valuation (19x FY16E P/E), 2SD above its mean forward P/E of 12x and its significant premium in valuation over its peer average of 13x FY16E P/E, we consider Anta's current valuation justified given the current sector upcycle coupled with the group's market leadership, superior operational quality vs other mainland sportswear companies as well as its significantly larger market cap and liquidity vs its HK-listed peers. In addition, we see possible near-term share price upside given upcoming catalysts which include: i) FY15 results which will likely beat market consensus, ii) 2H16E sales fair value growth maintained at double-digits and iii) continual improvement in SSSG driven by brand mix and sector improvement. Assume coverage with BUY and TP HK$24.44 based on a FY16E target P/E of 21x (+3SD above mean forward P/E).

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