报告名称：Xiao Nan Guo (03666.HK)SSS is Expected to Resume Growth in 4Q15
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2015-12-28
研究机构：国泰君安国际
研究员：郭日升
股票名称：XIAO NAN GUO
股票代码：03666
页数：6
简介：XNG’s SSS growth slowed from 5.2% in 1Q15 to -0.2% in 3Q15 as XNG isstill optimizing its menu to attract traffic flow. Although per capita spending isstill expected to decrease by approximately 2% YoY in 4Q15, traffic flowimprovement will completely offset such negative impact. We expect XNG’sSSS in 4Q15 to resume positive growth.
SSS growth in 2015 is much weaker than the management’s expectation andslowing economic growth in China is a concern. Thus, XNG number of newstores opening in 2015 is lower than previous guidance and XNG isexpected to remain relatively prudent in opening new restaurants in2016. Due to weaker SSS expectation and fewer than expected new storesopening, we revise down XNG’s EPS by 80.4%, 53.6% and 52.6%, toRMB0.009, RMB0.035 and RMB0.045 in 2015-2017, respectively.
Despite sharp earnings cut, we expect SSS growth to recover in 2016-2017on continuous traffic flow improvement and lower decline of average percapita spending. In addition, the opening of Disneyland in Shanghai in2016 is expected to help sales growth of restaurants located inShanghai to speed up. Therefore, we reiterate “Buy” but cut TP to HK$0.85on lower earnings, which represents 19.9x 2016 PER and 15.6x 2017 PER.

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