报告名称：BlueFocus Communication(300058)Pre-announcement below expectation on one-off goo
报告类型：点评报告
报告日期：2016-01-05
研究机构：高盛高华证券有限责任公司
股票名称：蓝色光标
股票代码：300058
页数：7
简介：What's changed
On Jan 4, Bluefocus pre-announced 2015 revenue in the range of Rmb8.5-9.5bn, up 42-59% yoy, and Net Profit attributable to majority shareholdersof Rmb50mn-100mn, down 93-85% yoy.
Implications
Although the top line growth is in line with our expectation (Rmb8.6bn), thebottom line was well below our prior estimate of Rmb468, which we believe ismainly due to the goodwill write off. Mgmt. mentioned three other factorscontributing to the lower net profit: 1) rapid increase in financial expense dueto higher bank loans and corporate bonds; 2) rapid growth of SG&A due tobusiness scale expansion and an increasing number of employees; and 3) ithas actively transitioned to digital marketing with new investments weighingheavily on margins which have not yet yielded sufficient profits to offset this.The goodwill write off is related to the acquired Bojie Advertising, whichsuffered an earning decline on the TV advertising slowdown and did not reachthe level of earnings mgmt. anticipated. We estimate that on a pretax basis(assuming a tax rate of 23%), the write-off was Rmb300-400mn as it guidedthat the non-operating item has an impact of Rmb250-300mn on net income.
Valuation
While the goodwill is a one off, we note that it reflects the ongoing M&A risksfor Bluefocus. We expect the other three factors will improve in 2016 asBluefocus expands revenue scale for new business such as digital marketing.Therefore, we view 2015 as the trough of earnings decline. We maintain our2015E revenue, but cut 2015E EPS by 83% to reflect the write off; we alsomaintain 2016-17E revenue but cut 2016-17 EPS by 7%/5% on higher financeexpense & lower investment gains. We lower our 12-m TP by 2% to Rmb14.52(based on 18X 2020E EPS of Rmb1.10 discounted to 2016E at 8% COE; EPSwas Rmb1.12, which we lowered on the higher finance expense). Neutral.
Key risks
Digital business growth higher than expected/margin lower than expected

下载地址：BlueFocus Communication(300058)Pre-announcement below expectation on one-off goo