报告名称：Dongfeng Motor Group(00489.HK)Strong sales in 4Q15; price discounts widen
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-07
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：东风集团股份
股票代码：00489
页数：9
简介：What's new
Dongfeng Motor Group released its 2015 sales data. The group’ssales volume grew 24.84% YoY to 340.6k units in December and2015 full-year sales rose 3.76% YoY to 2.87mn units, while PVsales grew 7.81% YoY to 2.52mn units.
Comments
In peak season, 3 JVs all saw continuous strong sales,outperforming the sector. DF Nissan, DF PSA and DF Hondasales grew 38%, 21% and 36% YoY for 2015 following strongsales in November while MoM growth in December was still highat 19%, 6% and 18%, respectively.
Price discounts may outweigh sales volume growth. Pricediscounts of major models are rapidly widening. DF Nissansuffered from price discounting in 2H15, but in late 4Q, pricediscount of the Teana, Sylphy and X-Trial models widened faster.Peugeot models also faced the same pressure. Although salesvolume is being stimulated by tax cuts, the share price is moresensitive to Nissan’s and Peugeot’s price discounting, which has amore important impact on earnings. (Figure 4 and Figure 5)
Uncertainty over the demand outlook for PV causingbearish sentiment. The market is concerned that if themarginal effect of tax cut is weakening, PV-sector demand mayshrink following the peak season. We believe price stabilizationand solid 1Q sales are crucial to bolstering sentiment.
Valuation and recommendation
We slightly raise 2015 earnings forecast 2.2% toRmb13.3bn and cut 2016 earnings forecast 2.9% toRmb14.1bn and we set our 2017 forecast at Rmb15.2bn.We cut TP by 15% to HK$11.6 on concerns of valuationlimitations in the near term. Maintain BUY.
Risks
Weak demand in the sector, intensifying price war.

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