报告名称：Huaneng Renewables(00958.HK)4Q15 wind generation weak up just 3.4% YoY
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-07
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：华能新能源
股票代码：00958
页数：7
简介：What's new
HNR reported its 4Q15 power generation data: total 4Qpower generation +73% QoQ & 5% YoY to 4,296GWh; windpower generation up just 3.4% YoY while solar grew 53.7% YoY.Full-year total power generation thus +20.5% YoY (vs. +28%YoY for 9M15) to 14,669 GWh, missing our 2015e estimate of15,484GWh.
Comments
Weak 4Q15 utilization due to poor wind resources: weestimate 4Q15 utilization was 486hrs, -22.5% YoY against4Q14’s high base; the main culprit for this weakness was lowwind speeds across China (-3% YoY), especially in December(-11% YoY), with all key areas recording large drops over themonth – Inner Mongolia -18% YoY, Shandong -13% andLiaoning -11% YoY.
We believe HNR may perform better than its peers due to its lowexposure to Xinjiang (4% of total capacity), Ningxia (nil) andGansu (nil), whose curtailment ratios surged during the heatingperiod. HNR’s curtailment ratio was only 9% for 9M15 vs. the14%/19% of LYP/HDFX.
Strong capacity addition as guidance: HNR added a total of2.3GW renewable capacity in 2015 vs. ~1GW in 1H15, this wassplit 2.14/0.14GW between wind/solar and is in line with itslatest (November) guidance of >2GW. 56% of its 2015 new windinstallation is in Grade I~III areas to secure higher wind FiT.
Valuation and recommendation
We cut our 2015e EPS by ~16% to Rmb0.16 due to theweaker-than-expected 4Q15 wind resources and maintain 2016eEPS at Rmb0.23. We reiterate our BUY rating but cut TP by7% to HK$3.77 based on 13x 2016e P/E.
Risks
Grid curtailment levels, delays in new additions; wind conditions.

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