报告名称：GCL-Poly Alert(03800.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-13
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：保利协鑫能源
股票代码：03800
页数：1
简介：ASP, cash cost and shipment
The industry’s inventory level for poly is still relatively high. The import loophole from the US is not completely closed and imports from Korea are also strong. However, the weak poly price had little impact on GCL’s profit in 2015, as only 5% of its poly is sold externally and the ASP for wafer has rebounded since August 2015. Although it is hard to predict the future pricing trend, the company believes that cost reduction will help margins. The cash production cost was below USD11/kg for poly in 3Q15. With the full utilisation of captive power plants, production costs should continue to decline in 4Q15. GCL expects wafer shipments in 4Q15 to be similar to those in 3Q15, as the utilisation rate has already been over 100% for all plants.
Demand
According to management, global solar demand is expected to increase 10-15% yoy in 2016. Of that, GCL is still optimistic that demand for China will likely reach 20GW in 2016. Demand in China could be more evenly distributed throughout the year in 2016 due to the cut-off dates for reducing solar power tariffs.
Financing
The company estimates that net debt to equity attributable to shareholders will likely decline from 158% by 1H15 to c.75% on a pro-forma basis, taking into consideration the impact from the power plant spin-off, special dividend and the rights issue, or from 136% to c.67% excluding GCL New Energy (GCLNE, 451.HK, NR). At the end of 1H15, foreign currency debt accounted for one-third of its total debt (excluding debt at GCLNE), of which one-third is hedged. The interest cost for USD debt is c.3-4% lower than the 6-6.5% for RMB dominated debt.
For GCLNE:
GCLNE’s grid-connected solar power capacity is expected to reach 1.3-1.5GW at the end of 2015 and 2-2.5GW at the end of 2016. Capex is expected to be c.Rmb10.4-12bn in 2015 and Rmb16-20bn in 2016. The company estimates that under the new solar power tariff in 2016 equity IRR will be c.15%, c.13% and c.10% for tier-1, tier-2 and tier-3 zones, assuming a unit investment cost of Rmb7.5/w, 80:20 debt equity ratio and 6% borrowing cost. If the interest rate can be further lowered to 5%, then the equity IRR will be 13-18%. The company currently has an equity return requirement IRR of 12%. The company aims to increase the proportion of in-house developed projects vs. external acquisitions/joint ventures. The company has avoided Gansu province in solar farm development, where power curtailment is most severe. It has two projects in Xinjiang, albeit in areas with less grid bottleneck, according to management.

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