报告名称：China Merchants Holdings(00144.HK)Potential first sizeable investment in Bohai R
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-13
研究机构：高盛集团
股票名称：招商局国际
股票代码：00144
页数：6
简介：News
After market close on Jan 12, China Merchants (CMH) announced that ithas agreed to subscribe 1,180mn Dalian Port H-shares (PDA, 2880.HK, NC)at HK$3.67 per share (-3% vs. Jan 12 closing), or a total consideration ofHK$4.33bn. CMH would then become the second-largest shareholder ofPDA with a 21.05% stake, empowering CMH to nominate 2 directors onPDA’s 7-member board and 1 supervisor. The transaction is pendingapproval by the CSRC, Dalian SASAC and HKEx. This is the first tranche ofPDA’s H-share placement announced on Jan 1, representing 75% of the1,475mn shares that could be issued in total. If the remaining shares arefully placed, CMH’s stake could be diluted to 20.0%.
Analysis
(1) Rationale. This is consistent with CMH’s strategy to utilize its strongbalance sheet and its intention to hold controlling stakes in China’s hubports. Bohai Rim only accounted for 11% for CMH’s container volume in2015, vs. 25%/33% for PRD/YRD. PDA handled 8.8mn TEU in 2015, or 6.5%of CMH’s total, which CMH said would create synergies with its interests inTianjin/Qingdao and extend its hinterland coverage to Northeast China; (2)Valuation and financial impact - The transaction would imply 30x P/E and1.0x P/B based on PDA’s annualized 9M15 data (factoring in reducedinterest expense for Dalian Port post-transaction), and is in line with therequirement that state assets cannot be sold below book value. Taking intoaccount the foregone interest income, we estimate potential EPS accretionto CMH would be c.1%. The move would lift CMH’s net debt/equity to19.5% from 14.0% (including payment for the acquisition of Kumport inTurkey completed at end-2015); (3) Growth potential - Dalian Port said itplans to use 35% of the proceeds for ports M&A, 20% for port logistics andthe rest for building its internet platform and repayment of debt. With itsparticipation in board decisions, CMH also sees room for PDA to improvereturns and expects 9% IRR on this investment over the long term.
Implications
No change to our estimates/TP pending completion of this transaction.

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