报告名称：Wynn Macau Limited(01128.HK)1st Take：4Q15 Preliminary EBITDA beat came from recl
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-16
研究机构：摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司
股票名称：永利澳门
股票代码：01128
页数：6
简介：4Q15 highlights: Wynn Macau preliminary 4Q15 property EBITDA ofUS$156-164mn is 6% above our expectation of US$151mn (based on midpoint).We believe the beat mainly came from 1) re-classification of mass toVIP, resulting in ~US$20mn higher than expected mass table revenue(implying VIP was US$20mn below expectation) and 2) 6% lower thanexpected operating expenses. Opex declined 5% QoQ despite net hiring of 700staff (total staff increased from 7,300 at end of 1H15 to 8,000 at present).However, operating income of US$75-83mn is 10% below our expectation.The stock is trading at 13.9x/10.6x EV/EBITDA on our 2016/17 estimates.
What we liked: 1) EBITDA QoQ decline narrowed to -2% from -6% in 3Q15,with margin up 90bps, 2) Mass is stabilizing - Mass and slot revenue up 1%QoQ, with slot revenue up 20% QoQ, 3) VIP contribution to EBITDA could havefallen below 25% of total the first time (based on 11% EBITDA margin), 4)RevPAR YoY decline narrowed slightly from -6% in 3Q to -5% in 4Q.
Our Concerns: 1) Market share loss in both VIP and mass table revenue by160bps and 20bps QoQ, 2) mass table yield dropped to US$9,965, belowUS$10K the first time since 4Q11.
下载地址：Wynn Macau Limited(01128.HK)1st Take：4Q15 Preliminary EBITDA beat came from recl
