报告名称：Shanghai Jahwa Alert(600315)Preliminary results implying a loss in 4Q15
报告类型：点评报告
报告日期：2016-01-28
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：上海家化
股票代码：600315
页数：1
简介：2015 NP up by 145%, mainly due to disposal of Jiangyin Tianjiang
Shanghai Jahwa (SJ) announced preliminary results for 2015 after the marketclosed today. The company expects that NP in 2015 will grow by 145% yoy,mainly due to an exceptional gain (ex-tax) of RMB1.79bn (23.84% stakedisposal of Jiangyin Tianjiang). Excluding this, the core NP of SJ implies adecline of 24% yoy to RMB679m, 27%/33% lower than Deutsche Bank/marketestimates of RMB934m/RMB1,024m (based on our adjustment by excludingexceptional gain), respectively. This also implies a RMB112m net loss whenexcluding the exceptional gain booked in 4Q15. We do not know if there areany other one-off expenses or provisions that caused the weak 4Q results. Thecompany will announce its 2015 annual results on March 11, 2016.
Deutsche Bank view – 2016 outlook remains challenging
We believe the net loss (ex. one-off gain) in 4Q15 is mainly due to Herboristslowdown, given that winter is usually a peak season for this brand. We expect1Q16 to remain challenging for Herborist due to a high base effect, anddifficulties in the distribution channels might persist (we expect an update frommanagement in its upcoming 2015 results meeting). Meanwhile, Kao (4452.T,KWD6,106, Hold) launched its official CBEC flagship stores in October 2015,offering products at more attractive prices. We believe this might affect SJ’sdistribution business in 2016. According to our Korea consumer analyst JinyunSong, who covers Kao, Merries diapers started to see a slowdown beginning inSeptember 2015, as they were disrupted by Daigou business in China.

下载地址：Shanghai Jahwa Alert(600315)Preliminary results implying a loss in 4Q15