报告名称：Daphne(00210.HK)Poor 4Q15; material loss in FY15
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-27
研究机构：广发证券(香港)经纪有限公司
股票名称：达芙妮国际
股票代码：00210
页数：4
简介：Maintain Underperform and cut TP to HK$0.86 While we think the acceleration of storeclosures in 4Q15 is the right move to cut operating expenses and improve store efficiency,the relatively low brand loyalty and keen competition in the mass market as well as theneed to clear increased old inventories (especially the 2015 Fall/Winter inventories dueto the 20% SSS decline and higher-than-expected store closures in 2H15) will limit SSSimprovement in FY16. We slash our FY15/16 net profit forecasts, now expecting lossesof HK$0.144 and HK$0.073 per share in FY15/16 (operational provisions in FY15 notfactored in). We lower our TP from HK$1.20 to HK$0.86, based on 0.3x FY15E P/B.
Expect material loss in FY15 Apart from 20% SSS decline and GM contraction in 2H15(the company made HK$4m net profit in 2H14), certain operational provisions related toinventories, store closures and personnel also led to the material loss for the company.We estimate the inventory provision could come from unsold 2015 Spring/Summerproducts. Further provision for 2015 Fall/Winter products due to the very weak SSS andclosure of stores in 2H15 is also possible.
No improvement in 4Q15 SSS Despite a low comparable base (+6% in 3Q14 vs -8% in4Q15), 4Q15 SSS still declined by 20% (vs -20% in 3Q15). The disappointing SSS wasmainly due to the warm weather, dilution of store traffic from Singles’ Day and the earlylaunch of the significant discounts offered by peers. We estimate that ASP could fallby >5% and GM could contract YoY in 4Q15. As a whole, SSS dropped 18.5% YoY inFY15 (vs -3.4% in FY14).
Increased store closures in 4Q15 The company had a net closure of 405 stores in 4Q15(vs 219 stores in 3Q15), which was higher than guidance of 200+ stores. Its total numberof stores fell 13% YoY to 5,597 in FY15. We believe most of the stores closed were streetstores whose lease terms expired without lower rents being offered by landlords. Someof the stores were closed before the expiry of the lease terms. In 2H15, we estimate allthe new stores were opened in hypermarkets and shopping malls. This change of storemix could increase the flexibility of the company’s rental expenses in FY16.

下载地址：Daphne(00210.HK)Poor 4Q15; material loss in FY15