报告名称：Wynn Macau (01128.HK)4Q15 beats mass stronger Jun 25 opening w/ doubts
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-02-12
研究机构：招商证券香港
股票名称：永利澳门
股票代码：01128
页数：7
简介：4Q15 adj. EBITDA of US$140mn (-34% YoY, -2% QoQ) beat clearlyour and strt est. as expected, following preliminary announcement
Fine-tuned FY16E/17E EBITDA by +7%/+3%, EPS by +8%/+7%.Our FY16E EBITDA and EPS differ from the street by -2%/-3%; TPfine-tuned to HK$8.90 (equivalent to 15% discount on 5-yearhistorical averages of 23x P/E and 17x EV/EBITDA)
Results strong, but still two overhangs remain: potential dividendcut and delay of Wynn Palace's opening. Maintain NEUTRAL
Margin up 1ppt QoQ through shift in revenue mix
4Q15 adj. property EBITDA of US$160.1mn implied contraction of 34%YoY and 2% QoQ. Net revenue fell 27% YoY and 5% QoQ, on 12% QoQcontraction of VIP GGR. Encouragingly, mass GGR was up 1% QoQ, inline with mgmt's stance of "mass market is stronger than in the past".Hotel operation also showed QoQ pick-up with occupancy rate (96.3%)and RevPAR (US$311) coming higher than 3Q15.
Other takeaways
Overall, we believe the implication for sector was positive with massstabilizing, while Wynn Palace's on-time opening remains a concern.Positives: 1) January in Macau was the best month in a long time, 2)Macau's CNY is tracking okay, particularly mass stronger than before,and 3) mgmt's tone became generally more "comfortable". Negatives: 1)no. of junket operators keep contracting: it now uses 9 junkets from 14 inthe past, which could further drop to 5, 2) contractor believes to make Jun25 opening for Wynn Palace, but mgmt did not rule out the possibility ofany delay.
Two hurdles ahead: DPS and Wynn Palace opening
Wynn Macau is trading at 20x FY16E P/E and 12x EV/EBITDA, in linewith Macau gaming average. Although 4Q15 results are strong, solidturnaround of market sentiment is unlikely by now: 1) DPS which used tobe announced in March has downside risk and 2) there is still possibilitythat contractor for Wynn Palace cannot meet the deadline. Moreover,ramp-up of Wynn Palace is likely to take longer since it might target highendcustomers rather than grind mass players. We prefer Melco Crown(MPEL US) and Galaxy (27 HK) among Macau casino operators.

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