报告名称：Wynn Macau Alert(01128.HK)4Q in-line; CNY strong in mass
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-02-12
研究机构：德意志银行股份
股票名称：永利澳门
股票代码：01128
页数：1
简介：Wynn Macau seeing strong mass on first 4 days of CNY
This morning, Wynn Macau reported 4Q property EBITDA at US$160m (-2% qoq, -34% yoy), at the midpoint of the range (US$156m-US$164m) pre-announced in late Jan. At the call, Steve Wynn gives some bullish remarks citing "Jan was our strongest month in a long time, and Chinese New Year started strong for the mass market". Mr. Wynn notes we are only 4 days into the 7-day CNY period, and VIPs are expected to come this weekend. With regard to the contractor for Wynn Palace missing construction progress milestones, Mr. Wynn says the company will help the contractor catch up, and that Wynn Palace should open "later this year". Given delay risks, we push back our opening assumption from late-June to 4Q16, thus cutting 2016-17 EBITDA by 5-9% and TP by 7% to HK$8.7. Maintain Hold.
4Q call highlights:
Some signs of stabilization since Nov: When asked if Macau is bottoming, mgmt said its retail rev is stabilizing, and hotel occupancy remained solid. Mgmt noted visitations to Macau seem to be stabilizing since Nov 2015.
Mgmt expects further junket consolidation: Wynn Macau reduced its no. of junket operators (from14) to 8-9 as less well-capitalized ones get pushed out. Steve Wynn expects they may only have 4-5 junket operators in future.
4Q results highlights:
Mass re-classification: Wynn Macau disclosed that 4Q mass GGR was US$ 229m (-2% qoq, -8% yoy) which US$33m higher than the DICJ number (US$196m). This suggests to us that Wynn Macau re-classified 14% of its 4Q mass GGR as VIP GGR when reporting to DICJ for the purpose of allowing smoking for its premium mass players.
Mass table yield at US$9,757 per table per day: declined 12% qoq (-27% yoy) as property added more mass tables to the smoking areas vacated by some junkets.
Junket roll recovered after Dore junket theft in Sept: VIP GGR fell 12.5% qoq (-41.4% yoy). 4Q VIP roll recovered 7% qoq as junket roll (90% of total) grew 9% qoq though direct roll fell 9% qoq.
Slot revenue jumped an impressive 20.3% qoq (-9.8% yoy) as slot handle jumped +30% qoq (-5% yoy) on slightly lower slot win rate (4.7% vs 5.1% in 3Q). We wonder if this is a leading indicator on the recovering of mass, or if this just reflects the volatility in high-limit slot play.
Margin recovery on favorable mix shift: 4Q property EBITDA margin improved 1pct qoq to 28.8% despite unlucky VIP hold (2.6%), partly due to favorable mix shift (VIP GGR -12.5% qoq, mass GGR -2% qoq, slot GGR +20% qoq).
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