报告名称：Huaneng Renewables(00958.HK)February wind power output up 27% YoY
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-11
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：华能新能源
股票代码：00958
页数：7
简介：What's new
HNR reported its monthly power output: 1,218GWh total forFebruary (-21.5% MoM; +27.0% YoY), including 1,155GWh windpower (-22.3% MoM; +27.7% YoY) and 63GWh solar (-3.1%MoM; +15.6% YoY). Total power generation for Jan~Feb rose by34.5% YoY to 2,769GWh, accounting for 14% of our 2016e fullyear estimation (vs. 14% for 2015).
Comments
Wind utilization hours still vary. HNR’s February windutilization was -0.6% YoY, still outperforming LYP’s -5.5% YoYmainly due to 1) HNR’s smaller exposure to areas with highcurtailment ratio such as Xinjiang, Gansu and Ningxia; and 2)further divergence in wind utilization growth for Inner Mongolia(+27% YoY for HNR and -10% YoY for LYP). HNR’s Jan~Feb windutilization was 5% YoY (vs. our full-year expectation of 7%).
Sentiment is improving following the announcement ofpolicies targeting curtailment problems such as guidance for theRenewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). We expect more details tocome out such as guaranteed utilization and punishment for notcomplying with RPS, which will further drive the valuation. Butthe real impact depends on policy execution. We still suggestHNR, which has low curtailment risk and thus varied operationalperformance.
Valuation and recommendation
We maintain our EPS estimates unchanged at Rmb0.15 for 2015,Rmb0.22 for 2016 and Rmb0.26 for 2017. Reiterate BUY withTP at HK$3.30, also unchanged, based on a DCF valuation.
Risks
Grid curtailment levels, delays in new additions; wind conditions

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