报告名称：Shenzhen International Holdings(00152.HK)Property acquisition neutral; land appr
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-09
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：深圳国际
股票代码：00152
页数：9
简介：What's new
Shenzhen International (SZI) announced it willpurchase a 24,718 sqm GFA property in Shenzhen FutianArea for a cash consideration of Rmb1.17bn(or Rmb47,253/sqm); the acquisition is neutral to SZI.
Comments
SZI and its subsidiaries currently rent ~15k sqm of office spacein different locations across Shenzhen; and, over the next threeyears its requirements will rise to ~23k sqm; thus the ~25k sqmacquisition allows SZI to house all its operations under one roof.
Fair purchase price with appreciation potential: thepurchase price is ~12% lower than Futian Area’s average officeprice. As the property is located in Shenzhen’s city center (Figure1), it has huge appreciation room; Shenzhen’s office sales pricegrew by 61% in the last year and was +6% MoM in March.
Slightly positive to earnings: the company’s current averageannual office rental cost in Shenzhen is ~HK$1,670/sqm, and thetotal rent for 23k sqm of office space should be HK$38mn.However, the depreciation of the property is only HK$28mn;thus, the acquisition will enhance earnings by ~HK$10mn peryear. The deal also makes SZI immune to office rent increases.
Sufficient cash supports the acquisition: in December2015, SZI received Rmb3.1bn of compensation from thegovernment for the Longda expressway toll-free agreement.
Valuation and recommendation
We cut our 2015e forecast by 8% to HK$2.55bn becauseShenzhen Expressway announced provision for Rmb620mn ofimpairment losses for Qinglian Expressway in January. We leave2016/17 forecasts unchanged. Recurring growth for 2015/16/17will be 18%/10%/9%. Qianhai Land and Melin Checkpointappreciation will bring upside potential. Maintain BUY.
Risks
Development of logistics parks faces problems.

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