报告名称：PRADA S.p.A.(01913.HK)Sales drop narrowed but operating deleverage could persist
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-15
研究机构：瑞士信贷
股票名称：PRADA
股票代码：01913
页数：5
简介：Prada's share price has been resilient as sales drop narrowed in 4Q15 (partly attributed to the easier comp base) and due to more active M&A in the sector. Yet, trading at 22x 2016E PE, well above its peers average of 18x, who have noted positive growth momentum, the premium valuation appears unwarranted.
Prada is due to report FY1/16 results in early April. We expect largely in-line net profit of 349 mn (consensus: 350 mn), which was -23% YoY on flattish sales of 3,545 mn (reported earlier), implying 4Q net profit fall of 13% YoY (9M: -26%; 3Q: -38%).
In 4Q15, by retail market (in constant FX), European sales growth turned negative post the terror attack, while America remained weak. This was partly compensated by the narrowed sales drop in Asia (ex- Japan) amid easier comp bases. We observed that efforts revitalise growth but take time to realise. As cost base continues to expand (net store opening still in plan), operating deleverage may persist.
Together with the fierce competition in the handbags industry, we see no clear re-rating catalysts in sight for Prada. Maintain UNDERPERFORM.

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