报告名称：ICBC(01398.HK)Weakening earnings outlook with attractive valuation maintain BUY
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-16
研究机构：招商证券（香港）
股票名称：工商银行
股票代码：601398,01398
页数：10
简介：We revised FY15/16/17E NPAT by 0.2%/-5.3%/-8.6%, resulting in YoY growth of 0.3%/-3.3%/5.2% given our revised assumptions on larger NIM contraction and higher credit cost/NPLs. Our earnings forecasts are basically in line with consensus
4Q15E NPAT growth likely dip to -0.6% YoY to RMB55 bn, dragged by negative growth in net interest income and higher credit cost. Asset quality should further deteriorate, in line with industry trend. We expect NPL balance and NPL ratio to increase 9.1% and 12bps QoQ, respectively, in 4Q15E
Rolling over to FY16E with revised TP of HKD5.88 based on target PB of 1.00x applied to our estimated FY16E BVPS of RMB5.30. Maintain BUY rating for the stock given its attractive valuation, strong capital base and relatively higher ROE
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