报告名称：Petronas：Results review and strategy update：BUY front/belly HOLD long-end
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2016-03-16
研究机构：德意志银行股份有限公司
页数：13
简介：In this note we review the recently published FY15 results by Petronas, discussits capex and funding needs for 2016, elaborate on our scenario analysis forFCF and leverage based on lower oil price assumptions. In terms of bonds RV,optically Petronas’ curve does not look cheap vs. many Asian, Middle Easternand LATAM peers alike. However, we believe that the front-end and belly ofthe curve do have pockets of value. Petronas 20s (Sukuk) have visiblyu/performed YTD vs. such MENA quasi-sovereign peers as Mubadala 21s andWAHA 20s. The 10Y bonds look attractive on a spread-to-sovereign basis,despite trading only ~5bp wider vs. Sinopec 25s and ~30bp tighter thanCNOOC 25s. We believe there is about 15-20bp upside in PETMK 20s and 25sjustified by Petronas’ relatively stronger fundamentals vs. peers (net cash,strong downstream presence), much lower new supply risk, scarcity value forthose wishing to diversify away from China or unable to get sovereignexposure via MALAY Sukuks. Malaysia’s relatively stable macro also helps.

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