报告名称：Country Garden Holdings(02007.HK)De-stocking pressure weighs on margin and B/S
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-16
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：碧桂园
股票代码：02007
页数：6
简介：Core NP in line, but margin misses
Country Garden (“CG”) reports 2015 revenue of Rmb113bn(+34% YoY), 9%/11% above CICCe/consensus; core NPcame in at Rmb97bn (+5% YoY), -2%/+1% vs. CICCe/consensus.GPM dropped by 5.9ppt YoY to 20.2% (2H15: 18.0%), 3.5ppt belowmarket expectations. Full year dividend is declared at Rmb0.13/sh,reflecting a 30% payout ratio and a 4.8% dividend yield.
Transition pain weighs on B/S: 1) de-stocking pressure intier-3/-4 markets emerged, as we see Rmb11bn (or 47%) increase ininventory; 2) big-ticket land purchases in upper tier cities (Rmb56bnland premium in 2015 double that of 2013, with average land costsurging by 72%, indicating better location) is a capital consumer;and, 3) properties under development rose by 25% (or Rmb37bn), itstill takes time for its tier-1/-2 cities sales to perform. The abovecapital consumption weighs on the B/S, resulting in a 26ppt increasein net gearing to 88% (treating the Rmb20bn PCS as debt), and a79% (or Rmb32bn) surge in payables. Although funding costs fell by1.4ppt to 6.2%, partially alleviating interest burden, we think suchcash flow pressure will continue until a significant sales uptick.
Trends to watch
Sales target of Rmb168bn could be achieved. Supported byRmb300bn saleable resources (+36% YoY), we think its sales targetof 20% YoY growth could be met. Net gearing will not go up further ifsuch target is delivered with satisfying cash collection.
Earnings forecast
We trim 2016e core NP by 8% to Rmb10.1bn, reflecting lowerthan expected GPM; and introduce 2017e at Rmb10.7bn.
Valuation and recommendation
Land acquisition in 2015 enhanced NAV by 11% to HK$6.03/sh. Weraise TP by 1% to HK$3.02, based on 50% target NAV discount(up from 45% to reflect cash flow pressure). Maintain HOLD.
Risks
Macro-economic downturn; policy/currency risk in Malaysia.
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