报告名称：China Jinmao Holdings(00817.HK)FY15 a miss but growth still visible in 2016
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-23
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：中国金茂
股票代码：00817
页数：6
简介：FY15 miss on low delivery
Jinmao reported revenue of HK$22.1bn (-25% YoY), 27% & 23%below CICCe & consensus. Revenue from property sales decreasedby 25% YoY to HK$16.3bn, while land development also declinedby 57% to HK$1.6bn. Core NP came in at HK$2.9bn (-20% YoY),21% & 7% lower than CICCe & consensus. Final dividend HK$0.08(-30% YoY) indicates 30% payout ratio and 3.7% dividend yield.
Highlights: 1) GPM squeezing. Property sales GPM shrank 2pptto 34%, dragging blended GPM down to 38.7% (-0.5ppt YoY). Weexpect further decline as property sales take a larger proportion infuture revenue. 2) High visibility. Unbooked sales hit HK$33.7bnby end-2015, with 100% of 2016e property sales revenue locked in.The 136% & 27% surges in accruals & current property underdevelopment also indicate rich bookable resources. 3) Gearingunder control, falling 11ppt YoY to 68% (PCS as debt).
Trends to watch
Sales target achievable. We think the Rmb30bn target (+8%YoY) on property sales can be achieved comfortably, with upsidepotential, backed by Rmb45bn in saleable resources and strongmomentum in tier-1 and core tier-2 cities where Jinmao focuses.The Rmb6bn primary land sales target, however, will be subject tothe Changsha government’s land supply policy changes and MeixiLake market sentiment.
Earnings forecast
We trim 2016e core NP by 11% to HK$3.8bn and introduce2017e core NP at HK$4.4bn, on an updated delivery schedule.
Valuation and recommendation
Trim TP by 3% to HK$2.89, based on new NAV of HK$4.45(-3%) and unchanged target NAV discount of 35%. Maintain BUYon concentrated tier-1/-2 city exposure and high product quality.Risks: macroeconomic downturn; tightening policy in tier-1 cities. .

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