报告名称：China Aircraft Leasing Group(01848.HK)Back on track; previous layout gradually t
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-23
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：中国飞机租赁
股票代码：01848
页数：6
简介：2015 results miss expectation
2015 revenue +35.3% YoY to HK$1,549.3mn; net profit +25.6%YoY to HK$380.2mn, 12% below our expectation.
Trends to watch
The earnings miss mainly came from an overestimate of thenumber of finance lease receivables realization: 2 vs. ourestimates of 5.
Aircraft delivery on track. In 2015 the fleet size expandedfrom 44 to 63 with new oversea clients being developed. CALCstill maintains a base case projection of ~20 new deliveries peryear, which indicates a visible growth ahead.
More new financing channels being explored todeleverage. In 2015 the gearing ratio declined from 87.3% to86.7%, with new tools as ECA financing, medium-term notes andCBs. After the build of CAG in 2016, we project the leverage ratiowould stabilize at a moderate level.
Government subsidy and gain from disposal of financelease receivables still contribute heavily to net profit(~63% in 2015 by our estimation), but more diversified revenuestream expected from aircraft dismantling services after 2017,which we haven’t factored in yet. Given fiercer competition frompeers, we expect NIM to be under pressure in 2016.
Earnings forecast
We cut 2016e EPS by 17% to HK$0.82.
Valuation and recommendation
With the comprehensive business layout gradually taking shape,we expect CALC to maintain its leading role as an aircraftsolutions provider. Maintain BUY rating and raise TP by18.3% to HK$8.94, implying 20% upside room and a changeof target P/E from 10.6x to 10.9x. Risks: preferential tax policiesto change; securitization misses guidance.
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