报告名称：Beijing Enterprises(00392.HK)A growing platform for clean energy and environment
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-04-05
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：北京控股
股票代码：00392
页数：20
简介：Remaining positive on growth outlook; maintaining Buy
We like BEHL for its 1) visible downstream volume growth on Beijing gas-firedplants ramp-up; 2) improving midstream growth, given recovery in gasdemand; 3) earnings quality with little connection income; and 4) additionalgrowth through holdings in BEWG, China Gas, and solid waste business. Wehave conservatively built in a 14% midstream tariff cut in 2017, which stillimplies a cheaper FY17E P/E (7x) vs. peers (10x). Maintaining Buy. Potentialcatalysts: further recovery in gas volumes and disposal of its beer business.
FY15 results: weaker-than-expected brewery offsets strong gas/water
FY15 recurring earnings were up 15% yoy to HKD5.4bn, 7% shy of ourestimates, primarily due to the weaker-than-expected brewery segment(attributable profit down 63% vs. flat yoy on our estimate), which offset thestrong gas and better-than-expected water business performance.
Earnings cut by 1.2%/3.7% for FY16-17E
To reflect FY15 performance and the latest operational updates, we adjust ourearnings estimates by -1.2%/-3.7% for FY16/17, mainly on lowered breweryforecasts that offset a stronger outlook on midstream gas. Our FY17E earningsforecast is 5% below consensus on a 14% transmission tariff cut assumed forSJ Pipeline I & II in January 2017, which has net profit impact of c.Rmb400m.
Target price of HKD57.1 (from HKD65.6); risks
Our target price for Beijing Enterprises is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuationwith a 15% holding company discount given recent investment in EEW andplanned solid-waste asset injection. Key downside risks include lower-thanexpectedgas sales in Beijing, a harsher-than-expected transmission tariff cutfor its long-distance pipeline, and lower-than-expected associate contributions.

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