报告名称：Huaneng Renewables(00958.HK)Strong Mar power output despite curtailment in XJ &a
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-04-12
研究机构：招商证券香港
股票名称：华能新能源
股票代码：00958
页数：5
简介：HNR's wind utilization +4% YoY to 502 hours in 1Q16
Curtailment remained serious in Xinjiang and Jilin, but we expect limited impact on HNR considering its low exposure to those areas
Supportive policies are rolling out; we expect curtailment to show improvement in 2017E
Wind power generation up 21% YoY in Mar; 29% YoY in 1Q16
Huaneng Renewables ("HNR") announced its wind power generation was +21% YoY to 1,452GWh in Feb 2016, or +29% YoY to 3,402GWh for 1Q16 (Figure 1), outperforming its peer Longyuan (916 HK) ("LY") by 15ppts/23ppts during the same periods. The increase in HNR's wind power generation in Mar was mainly attributable to the increase in installed wind capacity (+30% YoY), which outweighed the decrease in wind speed during the period (-2% YoY, according to Bloomberg).
Utilization continued to fallin Xinjiang & Jilin
We estimate HNR's wind utilization was 200 hours in Mar 16 (-3% YoY) and 502 hours in 1Q16 (+4% YoY), which was 14% and 8% higher than LY. While utilization in most zone IV areas registered YoY increase in 1Q16, we noticed a significant decrease in utilization in Xinjiang (-59% YoY) and Jilin (-71% YoY), which we believe was attributable to insufficient power demand amid aggressive capacity expansion (Xinjiang +126%; Jilin +300%). That being said, this was not a huge concern for the company, considering: i) Xinjiang and Jilin accounted for only 5% and 4% of its total wind capacity at end-Mar 2016, which was insignificant compared with zone IV areas; ii) we expect curtailment issue to improve from 2017E on the back of supportive policies (including RPS, guaranteed utilization hours in different provinces).
NDRC approved the pilot planto tackle curtailment in Gansu, IM & Jilin -another positive newsto the sector
Gansu, IM & Jilin will implement multiple policies to boost utilization of renewable energy in the provinces, including increasing the use of direct electricity supply, optimizing pricing mechanism (especially during peak and trough hours of the day), speeding up grid construction, prioritizing renewable energy for connection to the grid, and replacing coal-fired power with renewable energy. Supplemented by other favourable policies announced lately, including suspension of approval on additional wind projects in provinces with serious curtailment problems, we expect to see utilization improvement from 2017E.
Attractive valuation of 8.7x FY16E P/E, 1.3SD below hist. mean
We like HNR because of its relatively low exposure to zone I-III areas, which translated into better 1Q16 power output data, as well as higher earnings visibility in FY16E. We maintain BUY rating on the stock with TP of HK$2.7, equivalent to 10x FY16E P/E.

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