报告名称：China Overseas Land & Investment(00688.HK)Solid Results and Reliable Growth
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-05-12
研究机构：国泰君安国际
研究员：刘斐凡
股票名称：中国海外发展
股票代码：00688
页数：9
简介：1Q16 operating profit increased by 3.8% YoY, in line with ourexpectation. COLI's 2015 underlying net profit was in line with ourexpectation. Total revenue increased 6.9% YoY to HK$148.074 bn. Grossmargin bottomed out and slightly increased by 0.2 ppts YoY to 28.6%. Theunderlying net profit grew 15.4% YoY to HK$28.048 bn.
COLIˇs revenue growth is expected to be reliable. The Companyˇscontracted sales growth is likely to be stable with 2016 sales target of HK$185bn. The acquisition of a property portfolio from CITIC Limited is able toreinforce COLI's leading property developer position.
We expect COLI's margins to increase. The Company's gross margin isexpected to increase over 1.9 ppts between 2016 and 2018 as more landbanks are replenished through M&As and the majority of stock with low grossmargins were sold and delivered in 2015. In addition, strong cost controls anda healthy balance sheet are able to support COLI's profitability.
Maintain ¨Buy〃. The Company showed solid 2015 results. We think thatCOLIˇs revenue growth is reliable. Its gross margin is expected to improveand its profitability is expected to increase. Therefore, we maintain the targetprice of HK$36.43, which represents an 8% discount to 2016E NAV ofHK$39.48 per share and implies 11.3x 2016 underlying PER and 1.6x 2016PBR. We maintain our investment rating as ¨Buy〃. Risk: lower-than-expectedhome sales.
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