报告名称：Baidu(BIDU.US)History repeats itself
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2016-05-12
研究机构：中金公司
页数：7
简介：What happened
In this report we add details to our last note on theregulation over Baidu’s ad practices. A similar caseoccurred in 2008, when its share price -28% vs. the market afterits first day slump; Baidu cut its revenue guidance by ~15%,followed by a +12% correction over the next two weeks. Thistime, its share price lost -8% (excl. first day slump), we thinkS-T risks still exist until more certainty is provided.
Comments
Our last note’s 5% revenue impact assumption comesfrom: 1) ~25% revenue contribution from medical search, while15~20% involved with questionable hospitals; thus 4~5%impact on search; 2) enhanced weight of “credibility” and“reputation” in ranking have limited impact on revenue, as CTRand click no. can affect these two parameters; 3) impact fromimposed ad load limited: mobile not exposed, while PC may behurt by 5%, as prior limit held at 40%, thus impact for searchrevenue is 5%*40%=2%. Thus it adds a 6%~7% impact onsearch, and 5~6% on search + union, i.e. 4~5% impact on topline as search + union accounts for ~80% of Baidu’s revenue.Thus, 2Q revenue hurt by 3~4%, and a 4~5% reduction from3Q; bottom line of search hurt by 4~5% in 2Q and 5~7% from3Q, as fixed costs cannot be cut and this will exaggerate theeffect on bottom line.
However, in Baidu’s case, our last note neglected the demandfactor, which means China’s medical service industry may besubject to rectification, which could lead to a drop in advertisingdemand across the whole industry, not just the ones that need tobe ruled out. In that case, Baidu’s revenue guidance mightbe impacted (similar to December 2008), as its revenuemight be subject to a ~10% impact (thus 7% over thefull quarter). Baidu cut its guidance ~15% in December 2008,but search accounted for >95% of its revenue back then.
There are concerns over whether Baidu’s onlinemarketing will be classified as online ads– which requirean ICP license and ensure ad content’s fairness andaccuracy–which we think is overdue. Major Internetplayers (BABA, WUBA, etc.) are in a similar situation to Baidu,thus new regulations may have impact across entire Internetindustry. Although we cannot completely rule out this possibility,it could be an industry-level risk if it actually takes place.

下载地址：Baidu(BIDU.US)History repeats itself