报告名称：Tuniu Alert(TOUR.OQ)1H weakness priced in; recovery expected in 2H; maintain Buy
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2016-05-25
研究机构：德意志银行
页数：1
简介：1Q result in line, while 2Q guidance weak
Tuniu reported 1Q16 revenue of RMB2,032mn, +63% YoY, in line with DBeand consensus. Gross profit margin improved 20bps YoY to 4.3% due to theexpansion of financial business. Non GAAP operating loss margin narrowedQoQ to -25% from -26% in 4Q15. The 2Q16 revenue guidance is RMB2,338mnto RMB2,414mn, implying 54%-59% YoY growth. The high end is 5% belowconsensus, mainly due to the negative impact in Europe and Maldives whichhave safety problems.
Destination safety problem to ease in 2H
Excluding Europe and Maldives, Tuniu recorded 86% YoY growth in 1Q16. Ifexcluding these two destinations, Tuniu 2Q guidance could also reach a similar~80% YoY growth. Europe used to rank as No.1 destination and account foraround 15% of Tuniu’s total GMV in 2015. While in 1Q16, Europe business wasflat YoY (vs. industry’s YoY decline) and only accounted for 6% of total GMV.Instead Asean countries became No.1 destination with 17% share in GMV.According to the historical experience like Asean countries in 1Q14 and Koreain 3Q15, this destination safety risk will generally ease in 3-4 quarters. So weexpect the momentum from Europe will recover from 3Q16 and 4Q16. Thusthe revenue growth could achieve around 80% YoY again.
Cross sales added revenue streamline to Tuniu
Due to cooperation with Hainan Airline Group and other third parties, Tuniu isadding more products besides traditional packaged tour products. Theinsurance business, financing business, air tickets business and hotel businessetc in total increased over 500% YoY in 1Q, mainly due to the strong demandand low base. We believe these other revenues could reach 5% of total by theend of this year and help to improve the GPM by 50-100 bps in FY16.
Margin and cash flow visibility
Tuniu reiterated its determination to improve margins going forward by scaleeffect and more cross sales. And the well established infrastructure will easethe capex pressure from 2017. So Tuniu is confident it will record positive cashflow in 2017.
Risk reward looks attractive; maintain Buy
We maintain our Buy rating and TP of USD11. The 1H16 weakness is nowmostly announced to investors in this result. Going forward to 2H16, the safetyproblem in Europe and Maldives should ease and these two destinations canregain revenue growth momentum. 1H17 will likely have extraordinarily stronggrowth due to low base in 1H16. Margin recovery could be gradual, but theexpanding market share of Tuniu and market entry barriers should benefitTuniu in future competition in online packaged tour market. Catalyst could be(1) recovery of Europe and Maldives business, (2) ramp-up in other business.

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