报告名称：Huadong Medicine(000963)Strong growth momentum for core business sustained
报告类型：点评报告
报告日期：2016-06-01
研究机构：中信国际
股票名称：华东医药
股票代码：000963
页数：4
简介：Investment Highlights:
Two major products have been growing steadily, which solidifies the favourable competition landscape.
We expect the Companyˇs two major products, Acarbose and Bailing capsule have continued growing robustly YTD (+ 30% and 25% respectively) and the whole immunosuppressive agent product line to have grown by ~20% based on the Companyˇs 1Q2016 report and our grass-root survey.
Phase I of the Companyˇs Jiangdong production base is forecast to be put into operation in June 2016, when Bailing capacity could double, eliminating the bottleneck constraining the Company from cutting further into lower-tier markets and channels outside the hospital regime. Bailing capsule is used for long term treatment of chronical kidney and respiratory diseases. Even in adjuvant treatment for patients after organ transplantation operations,
Bailing is also an indispensable medicine with clear efficacy. We thus foresee insignificant impact on Bailing from regulation over adjuvant medicines.
Meanwhile, there wonˇt be new entrants on Acarbose market segments over next 2-3 years so that the huge low-tier markets will be left with the Company alone over next few years.
We expect the Companyˇs Acarbose and Bailing capsule sales likely to maintain robust growth of 30% and 25% over next 2-3 years, driving up its profit continuously.
Two blockbuster generic drugs to be launched with products full in the pipeline.
Much less financial expense for 2016 after completion of the private placement in Feb 2016 and promising prospect for overseas businesses via M&As (
Delving deeper into innovative businesses with its remarkable advantages in health care distribution.
Potential risks: slower than expected progress in R&D, cut in tendered prices for pharmaceuticals and failure in business model transformation.
Reiterate BUY rating. The Company’s major products are anticipated to continue with the rapid growth saw in 2015, which means solid competitive edges. With products full in the pipeline, the Company is to launch to daptomycin. We lift the Company’s 2016-2018E EPS estimates to Rmb2.91/3.85/5.11 considering a super antibiotic to be formally launched soon, much lower financial expenses with its private placement completed and the Jiangdong production base being put into operation before long. We reiterate our TP of Rmb87.30 and BUY rating given the rapid growth of its pharmaceutical manufacturing business and prospect of private placement proceeds financed businesses. Item/

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