报告名称：安徽海螺水泥股份(00914.HK)业绩符合预期 分红率提高带来估值提升
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2015-03-24
研究机构：申银万国
股票名称：海螺水泥,安徽海螺水泥股份
股票代码：600585,00914
页数：9
简介：Results in line. Conch reported full-year 2014 net profit of Rmb10.98bn and EPS ofRmb2.07 (+17% YoY), vs SWS’s EPS forecast of Rmb2.08 but 4.6% below the Bloombergconsensus forecast EPS of Rmb2.17.
Higher payout ratio as a key positive. In 2014, Conch delivered 249m tonnes of cementand clinker (+9.29% YoY). The average selling price (ASP) for cement and clinker wasRmb244/t, Rmb2 higher than the Rmb242/t average in 2013. Unit margin reachedRmb82/t in 2014, up Rmb3 over 2013. Conch increased its dividend payout ratio to 31%,which compares with a five-year average of 19%. This underscores our expectation, asnoted in our previous report, Shelling out (published 15 January 2015), that thecompany may increase its payout ratio, following its streamlining of its shareholderstructure.
Ongoing deleveraging strengthens balance sheet. Conch’s net debt by the end of 2014was Rmb5.76bn, down from Rmb10.0bn in mid-2014 and Rmb10.8bn at end-2013. Thelower levels of net debt over the year reduced net gearing from 17% in 1H14 to 9% forthe full year, (and compares with a net gearing in 4Q13 of 20%). We see Conch’scontinued efforts to deleverage as a prudent approach during the current period ofdecelerating demand for cement.
Refom to drive re-rating. We see positive results from the Anhui local government’sefforts to reform the state-owned enterprise (SOE) structure of Conch Cement, througha more effective employee incentive scheme that will likely push overall dividendpayouts higher. We expect the company to continue to raise its dividend payout ratioover the long-term from the current level of 31% towards 45%. We expect this to resultin a re-rating of the stock, as per the experience of the Taiwanese cement market.
Maintain Outperform. Anhui Conch is currently trading at an EV/capacity of Rmb468/t,representing a c.20% discount to its historical average. We maintain our current targetprice of HK$33, reflecting an EV/capacity of Rmb538/t. With 17.4% upside, we maintainour Outperform recommendation.

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