报告名称：Ctrip.com International(CTRP.US)Higher 2015 Revenue Growth and Improvement in Pr
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2015-06-01
研究机构：国泰君安国际
页数：13
简介：Ctripˇs 1Q15 adjusted earnings per ADR and operating profit were 26.5%and 33.0% better than our forecasts, respectively. 1Q15 net revenue wasRMB 2.3 billion, up 46.3% YoY. However, the Company incurred an operatingloss of RMB 180 million due to higher operating expenses, which as a percentof revenue increased by 10.2 ppt YoY to 77.3%.
Management guides for 2Q15 revenue growth of 45% to 50%, better thanpre-announcement expectations. This is higher than our last forecast of44.4% growth and Bloomberg consensus forecast of 42.9% growth, and alsohigher than management's previous guidance range of 40-50% growth. InMay, Ctrip acquired 37.6% equity stake in eLong (LONG US), which weexpect will improve Ctripˇs profit margin with an ease up in the sector pricewar and better bargaining power with upscale hotels.
We update our 2015 diluted earnings per ADR forecasts from RMB -1.85to RMB 1.20. With fast top-line growth and a higher revenue base to partiallyoffset fixed costs, we expect operating margin to improve in 2Q15 and thewhole year of 2015. We increase our 2016 and 2017 diluted earnings perADR forecast by 4.5% and 8.4%, respectively.
We increase our target price from US$52.00 to US$70.00 but maintain"Reduce" investment rating.

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