报告名称：Hong Kong Exchange(00388.HK)1H15 reviewBest ever result but dark clouds approach
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2015-08-13
研究机构：德意志银行股份有限公司
股票名称：香港交易所
股票代码：00388
页数：17
简介：A pause, not an end to HKEx's growth story; cutting TP 28% to HK$269
Despite a record net profit of HK$4.1bn (+73%yoy) on unprecedented turnoverin HK’s cash and derivative markets and LME commercialisation gains, the1H15 result was slightly softer than expected (48% of DB FY15e). As anuncertain macro environment looms and HKEx forecasts a delay inimplementation of major projects, we cut the FY15/16 ADT to HK$120/130bnand reduce our FY17-22E growth from 15% to 8-10%, leading to a 28% cut inTP to HK$269. Nonetheless, we expect China to remain committed towards itsglobalisation promise, with HKEx poised to be its primary beneficiary; retainingBuy. This note marks the transfer of coverage from Tracy Yu to Sukrit Khatri.
1H15 review – 1H15 NPAT up 73%yoy despite non-linearity of ADT
A 99%/54%yoy surge in HK’s cash and derivative ADT and a fullycommercialised LME helped HKEx record 71% growth in market revenue toHK$5.1bn, with HK$3.1bn recorded in 2Q15 alone. Non-market revenue, i.e.listing, market data and net investment income, grew by a sedate 7%yoy toHK$1.8bn. Group OpEx was up 9% as strategic investments drove up staffrelatedcosts by 26%yoy/16%hoh. Benefitting from the trading fee hike andHK$337m from LME Clear, commodities contributed 18% to group revenues in1H15, recording EBITDA of HK$1bn, or a margin of 80% (1H14: 49%). On theother hand, HK business reported an EBITDA margin of 71%.Near term: FY15/16 ADT cut to HK$120/130bn (old estimate: HK$130/145bn)As mainland uncertainty weighs on HK’s markets, we cut FY15/16 cash marketADT from HK$130/140bn to HK$120/130bn. We also reduce LME’s ADV by 3%given a challenging environment. Given management guidance, we upgradestaff-related costs by 8% but cut legal fees by 72% on improved LME litigationoutlook, leaving OpEx roughly unchanged. As our forecasts partially factored inthe non-linearity of HK cash market ADT and a muted impact from SZ-HKConnect, the cumulative impact on FY15/16 EPS is a drop of 3%/6%.
Medium-term EPS cut on expected project delays
Reflecting the macro and policy uncertainty, with HKEx acknowledging thepossibility of delays to major projects, we conservatively cut our medium-termEPS growth forecasts from 15% to 8-10% for 2017 to 2022. However, we areconvinced that HKEx remains the best proxy to the globalisation of China’sequity and fixed income markets, and is poised for solid long-term growth,explaining our unchanged terminal growth forecast of 5% from 2023 onwards.
Retaining Buy despite earnings reduction; downside risks
We value HKEx on a 10-year DCF, with a COE of 8.23%. Our revised forecastssuggest a 28% cut to HKEx’s target price, from HK$375 to HK$269, implying aFY16 target P/E of 37x (2007 peak: 54x). We retain Buy on HKEx’s mediumandlong-term growth potential, with major downside risks to our rating being(i) tighter-than-expected CSRC regulations to protect investors, leading tolower ADT in China and HK; (ii) China hard landing risks; and (iii) unforeseenmacroeconomic shocks affecting regional fund flows.

下载地址：Hong Kong Exchange(00388.HK)1H15 reviewBest ever result but dark clouds approach